Quantitative risk analysis – Ship security analysis for effective risk control options

Abstract

This is an accepted version of a paper published in Safety Science. This paper has been peer-reviewed but does not include the final publisher proof-corrections or journal pagination.Citation for the published paper: Liwång, H., Ringsberg, J., "Quantitative risk analysis: Ship security analysis for effective risk control options" Safety Science, Access to the published version may require subscription. AbstractThis study reviews ship security assessment. The objectives are to explore the possibilities for quantifying and performing a more thorough ship security risk analysis than that described in the International Ship and Port Facility Security code and to evaluate to what extent this more detailed analysis increases ship security and facilitate the effective selection of risk control options.The study focuses on Somali-based maritime piracy, using piracy on the Indian Ocean as a case study. Data are collected using questionnaires and interviews with civilian and military security experts who possess firsthand experience of piracy off the coast of Somalia. The data are collected specifically for this study and describe and quantify the threat's capability, intent and likelihood of exploiting a ship's vulnerability. Based on the collected description of the threat, the study analyzes and describes: probability of detection by pirates, probability of successful approach, and probability of successful boarding.The performed work shows good agreement between calculated probabilities and frequencies in the cited incident reports. Also, the developed scenarios describe the most important influences on the analyzed areas. The research therefore shows that the proposed risk-based approach, which uses structurally collected and documented information on the threat, can increase ship security by assisting in selecting risk control options. The approach also allows for a better understanding of the causal relationship between threat and risk than that provided in today's security analysis by ship owners, for example. This understanding is crucial to choosing effective and robust risk control options.

Maritime piracy situation modelling with dynamic Bayesian networks

“…A game theoretic approach that seeks to optimise counter piracy patrolling strategies has been implemented [51]. Risk analysis has been used to assist ship owners and captains in managing risk during a pirate attack [52,53]. Methods for pirate detection have been discussed in literature.…”

Survivability of an ocean patrol vessel – Analysis approach and uncertainty treatment

“…How to measure epistemic uncertainty depends on the class of uncertainty [27] and is in this study defined as expert disagreement (see Liwång, Ringsberg [2] for examples of how epistemic parameter uncertainty can be quantified as the result of expert disagreement).…”

“…There is a need for a deeper understanding of ship security analysis and how ship security analysis can incorporate uncertainties as an important part of the risk picture. In a study of risk analysis for a piracy case, Liwång and Ringsberg [2] document expert uncertainty and how it can be reduced in relation to threat analysis.…”

“…Such an assessment is especially challenging when the threats envisioned are new and the survivability design of older ships is not a relevant benchmark. This work presents a framework for decision analyses where both the operational risk and the uncertainty of the assessment are studied.Comprehensive studies on ship security risk analysis are rare [1,2], and the systematic handling of the uncertainties needed to create rational input for the decision-making process is even rarer. There is a need for a deeper understanding of ship security analysis and how ship security analysis can incorporate uncertainties as an important part of the risk picture.…”

A unified model for context-based behavioural modelling and classification

“…A game theoretic approach has been developed to optimise patrolling strategies to combat maritime piracy (Marsh, 2009). Various risk analysis applications have been presented for countering maritime piracy (Sevillano et al, 2012;Liwang et al, 2013). Risk analysis is commonly used to assist captains and ship owners in managing risk during a pirate attack.…”