Quantitative Models Evaluating the Effect Climate Change Effects on Tourism - State of the Art

Abstract

In a context of climate change, many destinations are considering what effects can be predicted on the tourist demand and how they should be tackled. This work analyses the most relevant perspectives presented in the literature evaluating the effect of climate change on tourism. A review is made by showing the results that rise from a triple point of view: the consideration of physical changes, the analysis of the tourist attractiveness through climatic indexes and modeling tourism demand. The review suggests that, although some methodologies are on a primary stage of development, results from the different perspectives agree in presenting a similar map of the main affected areas (positively and negatively) in terms of tourism demand and/or tourism attractiveness.