Quantitative-mechanistic model for assessing landslide probability and pipeline failure probability due to landslides

Alvarado-Franco, Juan Pablo; Castro, David; Estrada, Nicolás; Caicedo, Bernardo; Sánchez-Silva, Mauricio; Camacho, Luís A.; Muñoz, Felipe

doi:10.1016/j.enggeo.2017.04.005

Cited by 25 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…The model incorporated a comprehensive range of engineering structures, such as oil storage tanks, primary and secondary pipelines, security fencing, and retaining wall, in the engineering area below the slope where the studied sliding mass was located [ 26 ]. Considering that structural analysis is not the strength of the 3DEC, we treated these structures as rigid bodies in the analysis and simulated the impact of sliding blocks on engineering structures according to the variable contact between them.…”

Section: Analysis Of Heavy-rainfall-induced Slope Deformation and mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We defined mechanical parameters for the sliding mass in the model according to Table 2 [ 26 , 29 ] and concurrently incorporated self-load into the model. After necessary boundary conditions had been determined, iterative calculation was conducted until a balance was reached.…”

Section: Analysis Of Heavy-rainfall-induced Slope Deformation and mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…When impacted by blocks, gas pipelines can undergo plastic deformation or even fracture in severe cases. Therefore, LS-DYNA was used to reconstruct the structural model of the impacted pipeline sections [ 22 , 26 ]. The block impact load was added to the pipeline structure for accurate calculation of the instantaneous mechanical response when the pipelines received impact, prediction of the pipeline deformation, and evaluation of the existing pipelines’ resistance to impact.…”

Section: Analysis Of Damages In the Oil Transportation Pipeline Stmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Accordingly, we established three Cases with different block sizes according to the sliding mass model in Figure 3 to investigate the influence of block size conditions on the movement of sliding mass and its impact on the engineering structures. Table 1 illustrates the parameter setting according to the reference [27,28]; Case A had the smallest block size in the sliding mass (mean block size = 0.54 m 3 ), followed by Case B, and then Case C. We defined mechanical parameters for the sliding mass in the model according to Table 2 [26,29] and concurrently incorporated self-load into the model. After necessary boundary conditions had been determined, iterative calculation was conducted until a balance was reached.…”

Section: Model Parameter Settingmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Numerical Simulation of Na-Tech Cascading Disasters in a Large Oil Depot

Zhang

Shen³

et al. 2020

IJERPH

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The mechanism of natural-hazard-triggered technological (Na-tech) cascading disasters is complex, and the extent to which their damage is aggravated by various secondary events is difficult to quantify. This study selected a large oil depot and constructed a full-scale three-dimensional scene model based on the surrounding geographical environment. The discrete element method (DEM), finite element method (FEM) and finite volume method (FVM) were employed to conduct numerical simulations of the process and consequences of the following Na-tech disasters: heavy-rainfall-induced landslide → blocks impacting an oil transportation pipeline and breaking it → oil leaking, spreading and resulting in a vapor cloud explosion. According to the results, the maximum impact of the 1 m3 of sliding mass formed in the landslide on the pipeline was over 7 MN (meganewton), and the pipeline fractured completely when it was loaded with a contact force of only 1.44 MN. The numerical simulation methods revealed the mechanism of Na-tech cascading disasters in a large oil depot and quantified the consequences of each event in the cascading disasters.

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Section: Analysis Of Heavy-rainfall-induced Slope Deformation and mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Analysis Of Heavy-rainfall-induced Slope Deformation and mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Analysis Of Damages In the Oil Transportation Pipeline Stmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Model Parameter Settingmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Numerical Simulation of Na-Tech Cascading Disasters in a Large Oil Depot

Zhang

Shen³

et al. 2020

IJERPH

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“…There are many uncertainties and risks involved in the use of pipeline transportation, such as natural factors and human factors. According to reports, every year, there are numerous accidents caused by soil corrosion, landslides, floods, collapses, mudslides, and earthquakes [4][5][6][7][8][9]. In addition, pipeline safety is simultaneously threatened by human factors, such as third-party damage, terrorist attacks, incorrect operation, and design flaws [10,11].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk Assessment System for Oil and Gas Pipelines Laid in One Ditch Based on Quantitative Risk Analysis

2019

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In view of the vegetation reduction caused by the continuous construction of oil and gaspipelines, the pipelines have been designed to be laid in one ditch to reduce land occupation.However, owing to the small spacing between the pipelines, the fault correlation between pipelineshas been proven to increase the potential hazard of adjacent pipelines and routing environments.The neglect of failure correlation in existing risk assessment methods leads to inaccurate results,which will lead to errors in maintenance decisions. Therefore, this paper proposed a riskassessment system for pipelines using this laying method. In the risk assessment, pipelines laid inone ditch (PLOD) were regarded as a series system relative to the routing environment. Therefore,the functional relationship between the total risk of the pipeline system and the risk of eachpipeline was obtained by combining the engineering system reliability theory with themathematical induction method. In addition, fuzzy set theory combined with fault tree analysiswas used to calculate the failure probability of each pipeline in the system. Event tree analysis wasused to sort out all the possible consequences of pipeline failure, and then the consequences wereunified into monetary units to evaluate the severity of failure consequences. Finally, the two partswere merged into a bow-tie diagram to realize the risk management and control of the pipeline.Meanwhile, risk acceptance criteria were formulated to analyze risks and to guide pipelinemaintenance. This system provides a complete risk assessment system for the pipeline system laidin one ditch, including the methods of risk identification, risk assessment, and risk analysis, whichare of great significance to ensure the safety of the pipeline and the surrounding environment usingthis laying method.

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