Quantitative evaluation of China's energy supply policies in the ‘13th Five‐Year Plan’ period (2016–2020): A PMC index modelling approach incorporating text mining

Abstract

Energy supply policy quality is an important factor that would impact national energy security. While existing research conducted policy evaluation from the lens of performance assessment, less study has been devoted to evaluating energy supply policy from the perspective of policy making. This study takes the energy supply policy documents issued by China's central government during the ‘13th Five‐Year Plan’ period (2016–2020) as the research sample, and pioneers the use of the extended policy modelling consistency (PMC) index model combined with the text mining methodology to construct a policy evaluation index system with the characteristics of the energy supply policy which conducts a more in‐depth quantitative evaluation of the energy supply policy documents. The results show that the average PMC index value of China's energy supply policies is 7.26, and the overall quality is high. The concerns of existing policies are mainly focused on reform and development planning, safety production management and project engineering construction, but there is still room for improvement in policy predictability, coordination of policy areas, clarity of policy basis and goals and comprehensiveness of policy tool combinations. Based on this, China should improve the comprehensiveness of its energy supply policy tool combinations in terms of policy design norm; strengthen policy predictability and coordination of policy areas in terms of policy implementation guarantee; and clarify the basis and goals of policies in terms of policy orientation enhancement, to provide a reference basis for the formulation and improvement of future energy supply policies and to realise the sustainable development of energy supply.