Quantitative contribution of climate change and human activities to runoff changes in the Bahe River watershed of the Qinling Mountains, China

He, Yi; Qiu, Haijun; Song, Jinxi; Zhao, Yan; Zhang, Limei; Hu, Sheng; Hu, Yiyi

doi:10.1016/j.scs.2019.101729

Cited by 40 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…Yang et al [13] used the Choudhury-Yang formula to quantitatively distinguish the effects of climate change and underlying surface change on runoff in the Yellow River Basin. He et al [14] found that the change in the underlying surface was the main reason for the decrease in runoff in the Ba River basin of the Qinling Mountains by using the Budyko framework. Xia et al [15] quantitatively estimated the impact of climate change and human activities on runoff in the upper reaches of the Hanjiang River by using six derivative formulas of the Budyko theory.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Attribution Analysis of Runoff Variation in the Yue River Watershed of the Qinling Mountains

2021

Advances in Meteorology

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In recent decades, global climate change, especially human activities, has led to profound changes in the hydrological cycle and hydrological processes in watersheds. Taking the Yue River watershed in the Qinling Mountains in China as the study area, the Mann–Kendall test and Pettitt mutation test method were used to analyze the various characteristics of hydrological and climatic elements from 1960 to 2018. Then, the elastic coefficient method based on the Budyko framework was used to estimate the elastic coefficient of runoff change on each influencing factor. The results showed that the annual runoff decreased at a rate of 0.038 × 108 m3/a ( P > 0.05 ), and a significant abrupt change occurred in 1990. The annual precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (ET0) increased and decreased, with change rates of 0.614 mm/a and −0.811 mm/a ( P > 0.05 ), respectively. The elasticity coefficients of precipitation, ET0, and the underlying surface were 1.95, −0.95, and −0.85, respectively, indicating that annual runoff was most sensitive to the change in precipitation, followed by the change in ET0, and had the lowest sensitivity to the change in the underlying surface. Underlying surface change is the main factor of runoff decrease; the contribution is 89.07%. The total contribution of climate change to runoff change is 10.93%, in which the contributions of precipitation and ET0 are 17.59% and −6.66%, respectively. The NDVI reflecting underlying surface change has been increasing since 1990, which is an important reason for the runoff decrease.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Attribution Analysis of Runoff Variation in the Yue River Watershed of the Qinling Mountains

2021

Advances in Meteorology

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“…The statistical characteristics of the hydrological and meteorological factors of the three regions in the YZRB from 1966 to 2015 are summarized in Table 2. Previous studies have reported that these factors have opposing impacts on runoff variation, that is, an increase in n , which represents the characteristics of the underlying surface, including vegetation, soil, and topography, would cause a reduction in runoff, whereas P has the opposite effect (He, Jiang, et al, 2019; He, Qiu, et al, 2019; Liu, Chen, et al, 2019).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…According to the Budyko hypothesis (Budyko, 1974), the hydrothermal coupling equilibrium equation of the watershed was constructed to evaluate individual elements of the hydrological cycle and discuss their response to climate change and the underlying surface. Several recent studies have validated the Budyko hypothesis and have confirmed its outstanding accuracy in large catchments and long-time scales (He, Qiu, et al, 2019;Li, Su, et al, 2014;Ning et al, 2016;Xu et al, 2014;Zuo et al, 2014). Therefore, the Budyko framework was adopted in this study to conduct runoff alteration attribution analyses in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin (YZRB), where hydro-meteorological data are scarce and the physical mechanisms of runoff generation are complex Zhao et al, 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 93%

Quantifying the contribution of climate and underlying surface changes to alpine runoff alterations associated with glacier melting

Xin

Sun

Liu

et al. 2021

Hydrological Processes

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Climate variability and underlying surface changes are strongly associated with runoff alterations. The Yarlung Zangbo River Basin (YZRB) is a typical alpine region located in the southeast Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, where runoff is particularly sensitive and vulnerable to climate and environmental changes. Here, we conducted a quantitative assessment of the contributions of climate variability and underlying surface changes to runoff alterations from 1966 to 2015 in the upper, middle, and lower regions of the YZRB. The year 1997 was identified as the runoff breakpoint in all three sub-regions, which divided the runoff time series into the baseline period (1966-1997) and change period (1998-2015). An adjusted Budyko framework accounting for glacier runoff was developed to conduct a runoff alteration attribution analysis. The results indicated that the increase in runoff in the upper region was dominated by changes in the underlying surface and glacier runoff, whose contribution accounted for 59.61 and 49.18%, respectively. The runoff increase in the middle and lower regions was mainly attributed to the increase in precipitation, accounting for 39.36 and 129.21% of the total runoff alteration, respectively. Moreover, due to the little variation in vegetation and degradation of permafrost in the upper region, increases in runoff might be largely attributed to increases in subsurface runoff caused by the melting of permafrost. In the middle region, in addition to increased precipitation, vegetation degradation had positive effects on runoff increases. The lower region exhibited far higher water consumption rates due to its extensive and dense vegetation coverage accompanied by rising temperature, which resulted in a negative contribution (−58.74%) to runoff alteration. Our findings may therefore have important implications for water resource security and sustainable development in alpine regions.

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“…Climate change and human activities are considered to be two major factors driving changes in the hydrological cycle [1,[26][27][28][29][30]. Climate change includes precipitation and potential evapotranspiration changes caused by temperature changes [15]; human activities include direct and indirect human activities, such as land use/cover change (LUCC) affects canopy interception, soil infiltration, land-surface evapotranspiration (ET) [31,32], and other hydrological parameters during rainfall, which in turn affect the hydrological regimes and runoff mechanisms of river basins [33,34].…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of Runoff Trends and Drivers in the Haihe River Basin, China

Ren

Zheng

et al. 2020

IJERPH

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During the past decades, runoff has been highly influenced by climate change and human activities in Haihe River basin, and it is important to analyze the runoff trends and the drivers of its change to guide water resources management. The Mann-Kendall method and Pettitt test were conducted to analyze the hydrological and climate trends. Data from six sub-basins were used, including runoff at six representative hydrological stations and precipitation and air temperature at 49 meteorological stations. We used multiple-regression analysis and policy review to explore the influence of climate change and human activities on the runoff change at six sub-basins. According to the results, annual runoff showed a significant downward trend at six hydrological stations (p < 0.05), and the most probable change points at all stations showed up during the period from the late 1970s to the early 1980s. Moreover, the middle and late 1990s could be another probable abrupt change point at Luan River and Chaobai River. The declining trend of the annual mean precipitation at the six sub-basins was insignificant (p > 0.05), and there were no significant abrupt change points except the Zhang River area (p < 0.05). Compared with the precipitation trend, the annual mean air temperature exhibited a significant increasing trend at all stations, and the period from the late 1980s to the early 1990s might be the most probable abrupt change points at all four sub-basins. The trend analysis and the abrupt change point analysis suggest that mean air temperature is the main climate factor that will lead to the decline in the runoff time-series, while the insignificant downward trend of the precipitation might accelerate the downward trend of the runoff data. Through elevant policy measures, including land-use reform and the construction of the Three-North (north, northeast, and northwest China) Shelter Forest, China started to implement a family-contract responsibility system and initiated the first stage of construction of the Three-North Shelter Forest Program in 1978. The land-use reform policies greatly stimulated the peasants' initiative for land management and significantly changed the land use pattern and water use quantity in the Haihe River basin in a short time. Besides, the precipitation decreased and the air temperature rose, so an abrupt change in runoff occurred from the late 1970s to the early 1980s. The abrupt change in the runoff in the middle and late 1990s highly tallied with the construction time of the Three-North Shelter Forest Program. After near 20 years of construction of the Three-North Shelter Forest Program, the forest area increased, the forest quality had been improved, and the vegetation coverage on the underlying surface had been changed significantly, so the construction of the Three-North Shelter Forest Program was an important cause of runoff change in the middle and late 1990s. Also, change in precipitation and air temperature enlarged the effect of change in the runoff.

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Quantitative contribution of climate change and human activities to runoff changes in the Bahe River watershed of the Qinling Mountains, China

Cited by 40 publications

References 36 publications

Attribution Analysis of Runoff Variation in the Yue River Watershed of the Qinling Mountains

Attribution Analysis of Runoff Variation in the Yue River Watershed of the Qinling Mountains

Quantifying the contribution of climate and underlying surface changes to alpine runoff alterations associated with glacier melting

Analysis of Runoff Trends and Drivers in the Haihe River Basin, China

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