Quantitative assessment on the influence of rainfall on landslides in Jianshi County of Qing River Basin, China

Wang, Ningtao; Shi, Tingting; Li, Yiyong; Lian, Zhipeng; Peng, Ke

doi:10.1007/s12665-015-4899-0

Cited by 7 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 44 publications

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“…Landslide or slope failure may happen even it is designed with high safety factors because geomaterials are mostly dominated by uncertainties (He et al 2010;Johari and Lari 2016). Hence, the performance of landslides determined by a factor of safety cannot characterize uncertainties explicitly and sufficiently (Pourghasemi et al 2014;Wang et al 2016) and may sometimes be inclined to yield misleading results (Duncan and Buchignani 1973). Fortunately, reliability analyses, such as the first-order second-moment method (FOSM) (Low 2013), Monte Carlo simulations (MC) (Wang et al 2010;Wang 2012) and response surface methodology(RSM) (Li et al 2015), were applied to quantify these uncertainties in recent years (Phoon and Kulhawy 1999;Phoon 2008;Li et al 2009Li et al , 2011Ching and Phoon 2012;Zhang et al2012), which emerge as a more reasonable and rigorous way to handle uncertainties (Ji et al 2012;Tang et al 2013;Hicks et al 2014).…”

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confidence: 99%

Reliability analysis of a large-scale landslide using SOED-based RSM

Huang

Zhou

2017

Environ Earth Sci

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A design matrix in response surface method (RSM) that satisfies the orthogonality is very useful because the mean square error can be minimized, so that the response surface is more precise. But the orthogonality of a second-order design matrix in conventional RSM cannot be satisfied. In this paper, a second-order orthogonal experimental design (SOED)-based RSM is proposed by considering the orthogonality of high-order design matrix. The SOED is constructed by changing the length of star points, and the main characteristic of SOED is that the design matrix is diagonal. When the high-order terms are considered in the SOED-based RSM, a globe optimal solution can be found. As the regression equation is determined, the reliability index can be analyzed by the normalized distance between the mean value of the performance function and the critical limit state of the safety factor. A practical large-scale landslide with two slip surfaces is taken to verify the applicability and precision of the proposed method in detail. It is found that the SOED-based response surface is more rigorous than the conventional RSM.

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