Quantitative assessment of social and economic impact of African swine fever outbreaks in northern Uganda

Abstract

African swine fever (ASF) is one of the most important pig diseases, causing high case fatality rate and trade restrictions upon reported outbreaks. In Uganda, a low-income country with the largest pig population in East Africa, ASF is endemic. Animal disease impact is multidimensional and include social and economic impact along the value chain. In low-income settings, this impact keep people poor and push those that have managed to escape poverty back again. If the diseases can be controlled, their negative consequences can be mitigated. However, to successfully argue for investment in disease control, its cost-benefits need to be demonstrated. One part in the cost-benefit equations is disease impact quantification. The objective of this study was therefore to investigate the socio-economic impact of ASF outbreaks at household level in northern Uganda. In a longitudinal study, structured interviews with two hundred, randomly selected, pig-keeping households were undertaken three times with a six month interval. Questions related to family and pig herd demographics, pig trade and pig business. Associations between ASF outbreaks and economic and social impact variables were evaluated using linear regression models. The study showed that pigs were kept in extreme low-input-low-output farming systems involving only small monetary investments. Yearly incidence of ASF on household level was 19%. Increasing herd size was positively associated with higher economic output. The interaction between ASF outbreaks and the herd size showed that ASF outbreaks were negatively associated with economic output at the second interview occasion and with one out of two economic impact variables at the third interview occasion. No significant associations between the social impact variables included in the study and ASF outbreaks could be established. Trade and consumption of sick and dead pigs were coping strategies used to minimize losses of capital and animal protein. The results indicate that causality of social and economic impact of ASF outbreaks in smallholder systems is complex. Pigs are mostly kept as passive investments rather than active working capital, complicating economic analyses and further disqualifying disease control arguments based only on standard economic models.

Epidemiology of African swine fever in Africa today: Sylvatic cycle versus socio‐economic imperatives

“…Currently, reports indicate that the majority of pig producers, particularly in rural areas, depend on local sales, with low prices determined by the buyer rather than the seller and unlikely to increase if the quality of the pigs is improved by investment (FAO, , , ; Penrith et al., ). Furthermore, recent studies have shown that in the resource‐poor settings in which pigs are most often produced in Africa, economic forces are the strongest determinants of responses to outbreaks of ASF, in spite of a good knowledge of ASF (Chenais, Boqvist, Emanuelson, et al., ; Chenais, Boqvist, Sternberg‐Lewerin, et al., ; Lichoti et al., ; Nantima et al., ; Randrianantoandro, Kono, & Kubota, ). Coping strategies to limit economic losses due to ASF include selling potentially infected pigs as quickly as possible before they develop clinical signs and selling infected meat (Chenais, Boqvist, Emanuelson, et al., ; Chenais, Boqvist, Sternberg‐Lewerin, et al., ; van Heerden et al., ), reportedly to buyers in more distant destinations (Lichoti et al., ; Nantima et al., ).…”

“…Furthermore, recent studies have shown that in the resource‐poor settings in which pigs are most often produced in Africa, economic forces are the strongest determinants of responses to outbreaks of ASF, in spite of a good knowledge of ASF (Chenais, Boqvist, Emanuelson, et al., ; Chenais, Boqvist, Sternberg‐Lewerin, et al., ; Lichoti et al., ; Nantima et al., ; Randrianantoandro, Kono, & Kubota, ). Coping strategies to limit economic losses due to ASF include selling potentially infected pigs as quickly as possible before they develop clinical signs and selling infected meat (Chenais, Boqvist, Emanuelson, et al., ; Chenais, Boqvist, Sternberg‐Lewerin, et al., ; van Heerden et al., ), reportedly to buyers in more distant destinations (Lichoti et al., ; Nantima et al., ). Low biosecurity production and risky practices during outbreaks will continue to dominate the epidemiology of ASF in sub‐Saharan Africa unless countries invest in creating an enabling environment for smallholder pig farming to move from subsistence level to higher profitability, possibly through a process of vertical integration through partnerships between the commercial sector and smallholder pig farmers as has happened in Kenya (Perry & Grace, ), or through the establishment of pig farmer associations that allow individual farmers better access to markets and control over the pork prices.…”

“…The origin of reported outbreaks is frequently unknown but there is sufficient information to build a certain level of understanding of the drivers of ASF maintenance and spread in Africa and the relative importance of African wild suids and domestic pigs in the epidemiology of ASF in Africa today. Studies in resource‐poor pig‐keeping communities in African countries, in particular, have demonstrated that socio‐economic factors are major constraints for control of ASF (Chenais, Boqvist, Emanuelson, et al., ; Chenais, Boqvist, Sternberg‐Lewerin, et al., ). The aim of the study is to provide information useful for future research planning and ASF management strategies.…”

Overcoming the challenges of pen‐side molecular diagnosis of African swine fever to support outbreak investigations under field conditions

“…African swine fever originates from Southern and Eastern Africa, where it was historically maintained in a sylvatic cycle involving the natural reservoirs of the virus: the common warthog, P. africanus, and argasid ticks within the Ornithodoros spp . Today the disease is endemic in most countries of sub‐Saharan Africa where pigs are kept, constituting a major constraint for the development of the pig sector (Chenais et al., ; van Heerden, Malan, Gadaga, & Spargo, ; Penrith, Vosloo, Jori, & Bastos, ; Simulundu et al., ). During the last decade a significant expansion of the disease distribution has occurred, and ASF is currently present in countries in the Caucasus region, in large parts of Europe, and since August 2018 also in China, the largest pig producing country in the world (Chenais, Ståhl, Guberti, & Depner, ; Gavier‐Widén et al., ; Ge et al., ; Zhou et al., ).…”

“…African swine fever originates from Southern and Eastern Africa, where it was historically maintained in a sylvatic cycle involving the natural reservoirs of the virus: the common warthog, P. africanus, and argasid ticks within the Ornithodoros spp. Today the disease is endemic in most countries of sub-Saharan Africa where pigs are kept, constituting a major constraint for the development of the pig sector (Chenais et al, 2017;van Heerden, Malan, Gadaga, & Spargo, 2017;Penrith, Vosloo, Jori, & Bastos, 2013;Simulundu et al, 2018).…”