Quantitative Assessment and Validation of Groundwater Pollution Risk in Southwest Karst Area

Abstract

Groundwater pollution risk assessment is a useful tool for groundwater pollution prevention and control. However, it is difficult to accurately quantify groundwater flow and contaminant fluxes in karst areas and different types of karst areas have different hydrogeological characteristics. Therefore, the assessment of groundwater pollution risk in karst areas must use different assessment indicator systems. This study developed a new methodology that modified the vulnerability assessment model PLEIK, determined pollutant fluxes considering hydrogeological conditions, and revised parameter weights using the random forest method. The resulting PLEIKD-RF model was used to assess the risk of groundwater contamination in the southwestern karst region and its validity was verified. The results showed that the groundwater pollution risk in the region was low, with 65.64% of the low and relatively low risk areas located in the middle and high mountainous regions. 11.81% of the high and relatively high risk areas were sporadically located in the western and central regions, which were mainly controlled by the distribution of the pollution sources and the karst development. The accuracy of the results of groundwater pollution risk assessment in the study area was 71.87% as verified by the horizontal difference method. The results of the sensitivity analysis indicated that accurate, detailed, and representative data on the protective layer, surface water-groundwater interactions, and pollution source loads would improve the accuracy of groundwater pollution risk zoning. This assessment method provided a reference for similar assessments and the results provide a basis for the protection and management of groundwater resources in the region.