Quantitative assessment and driving force analysis of vegetation drought risk to climate change:Methodology and application in Northeast China

Li, Kaiwei; Tong, Zhijun; Liu, Xingpeng; Zhang, Jiquan; Tong, Siqin

doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2019.107865

Cited by 45 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 55 publications

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“…Previous studies have shown that NEC is one of the hot spot warming areas in East Asia [ 15 , 16 ]. Additionally, almost 45% of vegetation in NEC is at moderate or high risk of meteorological drought, which may cause vegetation reduction and ecological environment deterioration [ 17 ]. In turn, vegetation changes are commonly considered as indicators of environmental changes at various spatial and temporal scales.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In turn, vegetation changes are commonly considered as indicators of environmental changes at various spatial and temporal scales. Recent studies have documented vegetation response to climate change in NEC in terms of the relationship between temperature, precipitation, and vegetation status [ 13 , 18 ], vegetation drought risk to climate change [ 17 ], and the response of different vegetation types to water availability and the timescale of vegetation response to drought [ 7 ]. Despite the growing interest in vegetation growth trends in response to changing climate, there is still a lack of comprehensive assessments of long-term vegetation response to water availability using the full satellite record.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Assessment of Climate Change and Human Activities on Vegetation Development in Northeast China

Lin

Kappas

Wyss

et al. 2022

Sensors

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Vegetation in Northeast China (NEC) has faced dual challenges posed by climate change and human activities. However, the factors dominating vegetation development and their contribution remain unclear. In this study, we conducted a comprehensive evaluation of the response of vegetation in different land cover types, climate regions, and time scales to water availability from 1990 to 2018 based on the relationship between normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). The effects of human activities and climate change on vegetation development were quantitatively evaluated using the residual analysis method. We found that the area percentage with positive correlation between NDVI and SPEI increased with time scales. NDVI of grass, sparse vegetation, rain-fed crop, and built-up land as well as sub-humid and semi-arid areas (drylands) correlated positively with SPEI, and the correlations increased with time scales. The negatively correlated area was concentrated in humid areas or areas covered by forests and shrubs. Vegetation water surplus in humid areas weakens with warming, and vegetation water constraints in drylands enhance. Moreover, potential evapotranspiration had an overall negative effect on vegetation, and precipitation was a controlling factor for vegetation development in semi-arid areas. A total of 53% of the total area in NEC showed a trend of improvement, which is mainly attributed to human activities (93%), especially through the implementation of ecological restoration projects in NEC. The relative role of human activities and climate change in vegetation degradation areas were 56% and 44%, respectively. Our findings highlight that the government should more explicitly consider the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of the influence of human activities and water availability on vegetation under changing climate and improve the resilience of regional water resources. The relative proportions and roles map of climate change and human activities in vegetation change areas provide a basis for government to formulate local-based management policies.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of Climate Change and Human Activities on Vegetation Development in Northeast China

Lin

Kappas

Wyss

et al. 2022

Sensors

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“…The authors in [17,18] have developed a quantitative framework for assessing the risk management and the vulnerability of the ecosystem. They introduced the response-based quantitative assessment method.…”

Section: Figurementioning

confidence: 99%

Quantitative Assessment of Cybersecurity Risks for Mitigating Data Breaches in Business Systems

2021

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The evaluation of data breaches and cybersecurity risks has not yet been formally addressed in modern business systems. There has been a tremendous increase in the generation, usage and consumption of industrial and business data as a result of smart and computational intensive software systems. This has resulted in an increase in the attack surface of these cyber systems. Consequently, there has been a consequent increase in the associated cybersecurity risks. However, no significant studies have been conducted that examine, compare, and evaluate the approaches used by the risk calculators to investigate the data breaches. The development of an efficient cybersecurity solution allows us to mitigate the data breaches threatened by the cybersecurity risks such as cyber-attacks against database storage, processing and management. In this paper, we develop a comprehensive, formal model that estimates the two components of security risks: breach cost and the likelihood of a data breach within 12 months. The data used in this model are taken from the industrial business report, which provides the necessary information collected and the calculators developed by the major organizations in the field. This model integrated with the cybersecurity solution uses consolidated factors that have a significant impact on the data breach risk. We propose mathematical models of how the factors impact the cost and the likelihood. These models allow us to conclude that results obtained through the models mitigate the data breaches in the potential and future business system dynamically.

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“…Zhu et al (Zhu et al, 2021) used the AquaCrop model to simulate the yield of maize under different irrigation scenarios, furthermore, vulnerability curves (a function of DHI and yield loss rate) were developed for the entire growing season and each growth stage. Li et al (Li et al, 2020) used the partial least squares regression method to analyze the effects of climate change and non-climatic factors on NDVI dynamics and drought risk, thus exploring the key drivers of risk formation. The indicator system method is the most commonly used in drought disaster risk assessment.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Agricultural Drought Disaster Risk Assessment in Shandong, China

Yang

Zhang

Liang

2022

Preprint

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Shandong Province, the main grain-producing area in China, has ranked first in China in terms of total agricultural output value for many years. However, droughts with high frequency and long duration have been hindering local agricultural production. This paper aims to assess the risk of drought disaster in Shandong Province. Based on the natural disaster system theory, an agricultural drought disaster risk assessment model is developed. This model is applied to assess the agricultural drought hazard, exposure, vulnerability, emergency response and recovery capability, and comprehensive agricultural drought disaster risk year by year from 2012 to 2019. The results show that: (1) There is an aridity trend in Shandong Province. The interannual variation of drought hazard is obvious, and the areas with high drought hazard levels are largely located in the eastern part. (2) Agricultural exposure and vulnerability are mainly concentrated in the western part of Shandong Province. With the decrease in the proportion of the rural population, there is a slight downward trend of agricultural exposure. (3) The interannual variation of emergency response and recovery capability in Shandong Province is relatively stable. Agricultural insurance premiums in all regions have a clear upward trend, which is helpful for disaster risk reduction. (4) Rizhao has been in a high-risk area, moreover, Binzhou, Dezhou, and Liaocheng have gradually become high-risk areas in recent years. The interannual variation characteristics and spatial zoning of agricultural drought risk are explored, it is instructive for risk decision-makers to better develop drought response measures and improve drought resilience.

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Quantitative assessment and driving force analysis of vegetation drought risk to climate change:Methodology and application in Northeast China

Cited by 45 publications

References 55 publications

Assessment of Climate Change and Human Activities on Vegetation Development in Northeast China

Assessment of Climate Change and Human Activities on Vegetation Development in Northeast China

Quantitative Assessment of Cybersecurity Risks for Mitigating Data Breaches in Business Systems

Agricultural Drought Disaster Risk Assessment in Shandong, China

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