Quantitative Analysis of Human Error Probability in High-Speed Railway Dispatching Tasks

Sun, Yanhao; Zhang, Qi; Yuan, Zhiming; Ding, Shuxin

doi:10.1109/access.2020.2981763

Cited by 16 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…As the nerve centre of the railway transportation system, the high-speed railway train dispatching system is an important barrier for the safe, efficient and punctual operation of high-speed trains [1] . Its reliability is directly related to the safety of the entire high-speed railway transportation system.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Research on risk identification of human errors of train dispatchers in high-speed railway

Ren,

Sun,

Ding

et al. 2024

Seventh International Conference on Traffic Engineering and Transportation System (ICTETS 2023)

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In order to prevent and reduce the human error of high-speed railway train dispatchers, the method of TOmada de Decisão Interativa Multicritério (TODIM) and Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluations (PROMETHEE-II) was used to identify the human error risk of train dispatchers. In this paper, the risk attribute set is constructed from the three dimensions of human error probability, human error severity, and human error detection degree. Considering the fuzziness and uncertainty of risk attributes, it is represented by 2-tuples. At the same time, the entropy weight method is used to calculate the attribute weight. In order to reduce the defects of using TODIM and PROMETHEEII methods alone, the two methods are integrated and a new risk identification model is constructed. And the model is applied to the risk identification of human errors in dispatching command operations. The results show that the model can effectively identify the human error risk of train dispatchers, and the top three human error modes are the inversion of the operating procedure, the wrong handling decision and the issuance of invalid orders.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Research on risk identification of human errors of train dispatchers in high-speed railway

Ren,

Sun,

Ding

et al. 2024

Seventh International Conference on Traffic Engineering and Transportation System (ICTETS 2023)

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“…With the continuous development of China's economy, High-speed railway (HSR) has become the main body of inter-regional rapid transportation in the comprehensive transportation system (Song, Gao, Li, Liu, & Dong, 2023). The HSR dispatching system is the brain and nerve center of the HSR transportation system and plays a huge role in ensuring the safety, punctuality, and efficient operation of HSR trains (Sun, Zhang, Yuan, Gao, & Ding, 2020). With the continuous advancement of science and technology, China HSR dispatching system is based on the Centralized Traffic Control (CTC), realizing the automation and remote control of dispatching and command centered on train operation plan control.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk assessment of high-speed railway CTC system based on improved game theory and cloud model

Sun,

Zhang,

Ding

et al. 2024

Self Cite

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PurposeIn order to solve the problem of inaccurate calculation of index weights, subjectivity and uncertainty of index assessment in the risk assessment process, this study aims to propose a scientific and reasonable centralized traffic control (CTC) system risk assessment method.Design/methodology/approachFirst, system-theoretic process analysis (STPA) is used to conduct risk analysis on the CTC system and constructs risk assessment indexes based on this analysis. Then, to enhance the accuracy of weight calculation, the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP), fuzzy decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (FDEMATEL) and entropy weight method are employed to calculate the subjective weight, relative weight and objective weight of each index. These three types of weights are combined using game theory to obtain the combined weight for each index. To reduce subjectivity and uncertainty in the assessment process, the backward cloud generator method is utilized to obtain the numerical character (NC) of the cloud model for each index. The NCs of the indexes are then weighted to derive the comprehensive cloud for risk assessment of the CTC system. This cloud model is used to obtain the CTC system's comprehensive risk assessment. The model's similarity measurement method gauges the likeness between the comprehensive risk assessment cloud and the risk standard cloud. Finally, this process yields the risk assessment results for the CTC system.FindingsThe cloud model can handle the subjectivity and fuzziness in the risk assessment process well. The cloud model-based risk assessment method was applied to the CTC system risk assessment of a railway group and achieved good results.Originality/valueThis study provides a cloud model-based method for risk assessment of CTC systems, which accurately calculates the weight of risk indexes and uses cloud models to reduce uncertainty and subjectivity in the assessment, achieving effective risk assessment of CTC systems. It can provide a reference and theoretical basis for risk management of the CTC system.

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“…Previous studies have focused on HSR drivers [3]; however, dispatchers also play an important role in ensuring the safety and punctuality of HSR transportation especially in emergency situations [4]. Analysis has identified that errors made by dispatchers can be regarded as a significant predictive factor contributing to HSR accidents, which could lead to catastrophic consequences [5]. In 2011, on the Yong-Wen line operated by China State Railway Group, two trains had a rear-end collision, which resulted in 40 deaths and 172 injuries.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cognitive Abilities Predict Safety Performance: A Study Examining High-Speed Railway Dispatchers

Shi

Guo

Tan

et al. 2021

Journal of Advanced Transportation

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Cognitive abilities are good predictors of safety performance in many occupations. However, this correlation has not been studied from the perspective of high-speed railway (HSR) dispatchers who play a vital role in ensuring the safety and punctuality of HSR transportation system. Therefore, studying factors affecting HSR dispatchers’ safety performance is not only of great importance in filling the theoretical gap, but also conducive to the selection and training of dispatchers, contributing to the reduction of human errors and the prevention of railway accidents. In this study, a total of 118 HSR dispatchers from a branch of China Railway were recruited to complete the tests that examined their cognitive abilities related to the dispatching job, including logical reasoning, visual multiobject tracking, working memory, task switching, and cognitive flexibility. Safety performance, including both the safety evaluation score obtained from the dispatchers’ monthly safety performance record of the Railway Bureau and the emergency disposal performance indicated by train delay time, was evaluated with a dispatch simulator. The results suggested that better abilities in visual multiobject tracking, working memory, task switching, and cognitive flexibility were correlated with higher safety evaluation score (reflecting daily safety performance) and shorter train delay time (reflecting safety and efficiency in emergency disposal). No significant correlation was found in logical reasoning. These findings support the recommendation that cognitive abilities investigated as predictors of safety performance could be useful for the selection and training of HSR dispatchers.

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Quantitative Analysis of Human Error Probability in High-Speed Railway Dispatching Tasks

Cited by 16 publications

References 25 publications

Research on risk identification of human errors of train dispatchers in high-speed railway

Research on risk identification of human errors of train dispatchers in high-speed railway

Risk assessment of high-speed railway CTC system based on improved game theory and cloud model

Cognitive Abilities Predict Safety Performance: A Study Examining High-Speed Railway Dispatchers

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