Quantifying variability in earthquake rupture models using multidimensional scaling: application to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

Razafindrakoto, Hoby N. T.; Martin, P.; Genton, Marc G.; Zhang, Ling; Thingbaijam, K. K. S.

doi:10.1093/gji/ggv088

Cited by 23 publications

(36 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…Calibration data of source inversions vary, affected by available observational networks and their recordings (e.g., strong‐motion, teleseismic, geodetic, and tsunami measurements). The variability in derived earthquake rupture models can be assessed by examining an online database of finite‐fault source models (SRCMOD, http://equake-rc.info/srcmod) [ Mai and Thingbaijam , ], and is further quantified for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake [ Razafindrakoto et al ., ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Variability of tsunami inundation footprints considering stochastic scenarios based on a single rupture model: Application to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

et al. 2015

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The sensitivity and variability of spatial tsunami inundation footprints in coastal cities and towns due to a megathrust subduction earthquake in the Tohoku region of Japan are investigated by considering different fault geometry and slip distributions. Stochastic tsunami scenarios are generated based on the spectral analysis and synthesis method with regards to an inverted source model. To assess spatial inundation processes accurately, tsunami modeling is conducted using bathymetry and elevation data with 50 m grid resolutions. Using the developed methodology for assessing variability of tsunami hazard estimates, stochastic inundation depth maps can be generated for local coastal communities. These maps are important for improving disaster preparedness by understanding the consequences of different situations/ conditions, and by communicating uncertainty associated with hazard predictions. The analysis indicates that the sensitivity of inundation areas to the geometrical parameters (i.e., top-edge depth, strike, and dip) depends on the tsunami source characteristics and the site location, and is therefore complex and highly nonlinear. The variability assessment of inundation footprints indicates significant influence of slip distributions. In particular, topographical features of the region, such as ria coast and near-shore plain, have major influence on the tsunami inundation footprints.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Variability of tsunami inundation footprints considering stochastic scenarios based on a single rupture model: Application to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

et al. 2015

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“…2.2. As inverted source models differ significantly (Goda et al 2014;Razafindrakoto et al 2015), multiple reference models are considered to account for epistemic uncertainties related to earthquake source modeling (Ammon et al 2011;Fujii et al 2011;Hayes 2011;Iinuma et al 2011Iinuma et al , 2012Shao et al 2011;Yamazaki et al 2011;Gusman et al 2011;Satake et al 2013). Generally, the number and locations of SMGAs within a background fault plane can be selected based on the past regional seismicity as well as seismotectonic features.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Inference of the spacetime evolution of earthquake rupture can be conducted using source inversion analysis. Comparison of numerous inversion studies for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake indicated that published earthquake source models vary significantly in terms of fault geometry and spatial slip distribution (Goda et al 2014;Razafindrakoto et al 2015). As a common feature, strong motion-based source models have relatively small fault segments at deep locations (typically 25-40 km), which radiate intense high-frequency seismic waves (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Stochastic coupled simulation of strong motion and tsunami for the 2011 Tohoku, Japan earthquake

Goda

Petrone

Risi

et al. 2016

Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess

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This study conducts coupled simulation of strong motion and tsunami using stochastically generated earthquake source models. It is focused upon the 2011 Tohoku, Japan earthquake. The ground motion time-histories are simulated using the multiple-event stochastic finite-fault method, which takes into account multiple local rupture processes in strong motion generation areas. For tsunami simulation, multiple realizations of wave profiles are generated by evaluating nonlinear shallow water equations with run-up. Key objectives of this research are: (i) to investigate the sensitivity of strong motion and tsunami hazard parameters to asperities and strong motion generation areas, and (ii) to quantify the spatial variability and dependency of strong motion and tsunami predictions due to common earthquake sources. The investigations provide valuable insights in understanding the temporal and spatial impact of cascading earthquake hazards. Importantly, the study also develops an integrated strong motion and tsunami simulator, which is capable of capturing earthquake source uncertainty. Such an advanced numerical tool is necessary for assessing the performance of buildings and infrastructure that are subjected to cascading earthquake-tsunami hazards.

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“…for the 2011 M 9 Tohoku-Oki earthquake, Brown et al 2015;Razafindrakoto et al 2015). The uncertainty in slip inversions is also a concern when evaluating strain accumulation and release during the seismic cycle.…”

Section: Ambiguities In the Slip Models For The 2010 M 88 Maule Eartmentioning

confidence: 99%

To which level did the 2010 M 8.8 Maule earthquake fill the pre-existing seismic gap?

Wang

Hainzl

Martin

2017

Geophysical Journal International

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S U M M A R YThere is a long-standing debate whether or not the 2010 M 8.8 Maule earthquake filled a pre-existing seismic gap in which no large earthquake occurred for about 200 yr. Utilizing the inversion approach of Wang et al. that considers elastic strain accumulation and strain release during the earthquake cycle and includes the fault-coupling state as prior information in coseismic slip modelling, we investigate the inter-and coseismic slip balance for the 2010 M 8.8 Maule earthquake. The coseismic slip model is obtained as the product of three components: the interseismic backslip rate, the strain accumulation time, and the fraction of coseismically released slip potency (the product of slip and slip area) that may either fully or partially release the local strain. We construct slip models using the Slab1.0 fault geometry, and constrain the strain accumulation time for the 2010 Maule earthquake based on historical large earthquakes in the region. The results demonstrate that two slip clusters (north and south of the hypocentre) are required to model the geodetically measured coseismic displacements. The slip patch south of the hypocentre is located in a strongly coupled zone, and possibly released the local strain completely. The slip area north of the hypocentre overlaps with the interseismically creeping zone in which strain buildup may be low. The northern slip patch released higher slip potency than accumulated since the last mega-event in 1751, suggesting a possible dynamic overshoot during coseismic rupture (under the assumption that the last major earthquake has reset the regional strain). Alternatively, the last big event may not have fully released the strain in this region. Our study reveals that the Maule earthquake, combing its coseismic and post-seismic slip over 1.3 yr, released ∼67-72 per cent of the local strain. Remaining strain is concentrated mainly south of the hypocentre, with potency equivalent to an M 8.4 event considering strain accumulation for 259 yr (since 1751).

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Quantifying variability in earthquake rupture models using multidimensional scaling: application to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

Cited by 23 publications

References 46 publications

Variability of tsunami inundation footprints considering stochastic scenarios based on a single rupture model: Application to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

Variability of tsunami inundation footprints considering stochastic scenarios based on a single rupture model: Application to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

Stochastic coupled simulation of strong motion and tsunami for the 2011 Tohoku, Japan earthquake

To which level did the 2010 M 8.8 Maule earthquake fill the pre-existing seismic gap?

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