Quantifying Uncertainty of Probable Maximum Flood

Singh, Vijay P.

doi:10.1061/(asce)he.1943-5584.0002142

Cited by 2 publications

(2 citation statements)

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“…This approach can achieve the range of peak flow extremes examined here, but results have no clear estimate of return period and are usually not applicable over large spatial domains. Moreover, the estimation of PMP and ensuing PMF bears substantial simplifications and considerable uncertainties (Salas et al, 2014;Micovic et al, 2015;Ben Alaya et al, 2018;Zhang and Singh, 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comprehensive space–time hydrometeorological simulations for estimating very rare floods at multiple sites in a large river basin

Viviroli

Sikorska‐Senoner

Evin

et al. 2022

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Estimates for rare to very rare floods are limited by the relatively short streamflow records available. Often, pragmatic conversion factors are used to quantify such events based on extrapolated observations, or simplifying assumptions are made about extreme precipitation and resulting flood peaks. Continuous simulation (CS) is an alternative approach that better links flood estimation with physical processes and avoids assumptions about antecedent conditions. However, long-term CS has hardly been implemented to estimate rare floods (i.e. return periods considerably larger than 100 years) at multiple sites in a large river basin to date. Here we explore the feasibility and reliability of the CS approach for 19 sites in the Aare River basin in Switzerland (area: 17 700 km2) with exceedingly long simulations in a hydrometeorological model chain. The chain starts with a multi-site stochastic weather generator used to generate 30 realizations of hourly precipitation and temperature scenarios of 10 000 years each. These realizations were then run through a bucket-type hydrological model for 80 sub-catchments and finally routed downstream with a simplified representation of main river channels, major lakes and relevant floodplains in a hydrologic routing system. Comprehensive evaluation over different temporal and spatial scales showed that the main features of the meteorological and hydrological observations are well represented and that meaningful information on low-probability floods can be inferred. Although uncertainties are still considerable, the explicit consideration of important processes of flood generation and routing (snow accumulation, snowmelt, soil moisture storage, bank overflow, lake and floodplain retention) is a substantial advantage. The approach allows for comprehensively exploring possible but unobserved spatial and temporal patterns of hydrometeorological behaviour. This is of particular value in a large river basin where the complex interaction of flows from individual tributaries and lake regulations are typically not well represented in the streamflow observations. The framework is also suitable for estimating more frequent floods, as often required in engineering and hazard mapping.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comprehensive space–time hydrometeorological simulations for estimating very rare floods at multiple sites in a large river basin

Viviroli

Sikorska‐Senoner

Evin

et al. 2022

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comprehensive space-time hydrometeorological simulations for estimating very rare floods at multiple sites in a large river basin

Viviroli¹,

Sikorska‐Senoner²,

Evin³

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Abstract. Estimates for rare to very rare floods are limited by the relatively short streamflow records available. Often, pragmatic conversion factors are used to quantify such events based on extrapolated observations, or simplifying assumptions are made about extreme precipitation and resulting flood peaks. Continuous simulation (CS) is an alternative approach that better links flood estimation with physical processes and avoids assumptions about antecedent conditions. However, long-term CS has hardly been implemented to estimate rare floods (i.e., return periods considerably larger than 100 years) at multiple sites in a large river basin to date. Here we explore the feasibility and reliability of the CS approach for 19 sites in the Aare River basin in Switzerland (area: 17 700 km2) with exceedingly long simulations in a hydrometeorological model chain. The chain starts with a multi-site stochastic weather generator used to generate 30 realisations of hourly precipitation and temperature scenarios of 10 000 years each. These realisations were then run through a bucket-type hydrological model for 79 sub-catchments and finally routed downstream with a simplified representation of main river channels, major lakes and relevant floodplains in a hydrologic routing system. Comprehensive evaluation over different temporal and spatial scales showed that the main features of the meteorological and hydrological observations are well represented, and that meaningful information on low-probability floods can be inferred. Although uncertainties are still considerable, the explicit consideration of important processes of flood generation and routing (snow accumulation, snowmelt, soil moisture storage, bank overflow, lake and floodplain retention) is a substantial advantage. The approach allows to comprehensively explore possible but unobserved spatial and temporal patterns of hydrometeorological behaviour. This is of particular value in a large river basin where the complex interaction of flows from individual tributaries and lake regulations are typically not well represented in the streamflow observations. The framework is also suitable for estimating more frequent floods, as often required in engineering and hazard mapping.

show abstract

Quantifying Uncertainty of Probable Maximum Flood

Cited by 2 publications

References 55 publications

Comprehensive space–time hydrometeorological simulations for estimating very rare floods at multiple sites in a large river basin

Comprehensive space–time hydrometeorological simulations for estimating very rare floods at multiple sites in a large river basin

Comprehensive space-time hydrometeorological simulations for estimating very rare floods at multiple sites in a large river basin

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