Quantifying uncertainty in twenty-first century climate change over India

Singh, Ram; AchutaRao, Krishna

doi:10.1007/s00382-018-4361-6

Cited by 20 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…Compared to the dry extremes, there is a higher agreement among the CMIP5‐GCMs on the projected increase in the wet extremes under the warming climate with nearly 95% of the study area exhibited CV (PR) less than 1 (Figure 3e). The future projections on the occurrence of the dry extremes reveal a high inter‐model uncertainty, which is attributable to the uncertainty in the precipitation projections in India (Mishra et al, 2014; Singh & AchutaRao, 2018). The summer monsoon season precipitation is projected to increase in India under the warming climate (Chaturvedi et al, 2012; Kumar et al, 2006; Menon et al, 2013).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Increase in Population Exposure Due to Dry and Wet Extremes in India Under a Warming Climate

Kumar

Mishra

2020

Earth's Future

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…India (Mishra et al, 2014;Singh & AchutaRao, 2018). The summer monsoon season precipitation is projected to increase in India under the warming climate (Chaturvedi et al, 2012;Kumar et al, 2006;Menon et al, 2013).…”

Section: Projected Changes In Dry and Wet Extremesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Increase in Population Exposure Due to Dry and Wet Extremes in India Under a Warming Climate

Kumar

Mishra

2020

Earth's Future

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“…However, with the increase in occurrences of extreme events such as precipitation extremes [5], droughts [6] and high maximum temperatures [7] across India due to climate change [8], agricultural growth is already being hindered. In addition, this impact on agriculture will likely continue with the increasing trend in extreme events [9,10].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Increasing agricultural risk to hydro-climatic extremes in India

Sharma

Hari

Karmakar

et al. 2020

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Indian agriculture is globally well-documented to reflect the impacts of changing climate significantly. However, climate adaptation efforts are often hindered due to the inadequate assessment of coupled human-environment interactions. In this study, we propose a novel unified country-level framework to quantify the decadal agricultural risks derived from multiple hydro-meteorological exposures and adaptive consequences. We identify, for the first time, that rice and wheat risks have increased in the recent decade, with wheat at a twofold higher magnitude than rice. Increasing crops risk is found to be predominantly driven by the decreasing number of cultivators; in particular, the wheat risk is also attributed to increasing minimum temperatures during the crop growing season. We provide convincing evidence indicating that the hydro-climatic hazards related to precipitation extremes and droughts are specifically alarming the crops risk as compared to temperature extremes. These observation-based results highlight the sensitivity of India's agriculture and the risk associated with multiple agro-ecological and climatic components. We recommend these findings to facilitate the informed planning of adaptive measures and ensure sustainable food security of the nation.

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“…We use multi‐model ensembles available from CMIP5 to analyze model uncertainty (Taylor et al., 2012; Singh & AchutaRao, 2019). The CMIP5 models were selected based on the availability of historical and RCP 8.5 total precipitation, which is available from https://cmip.llnl.gov/cmip5/data_portal.html.…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%