Quantifying the probability distribution function of the transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions

Spafford, Lynsay; MacDougall, Andrew H.

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab6d7b

Cited by 8 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 80 publications

(186 reference statements)

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…c Comparison to previous TCRE estimates. Yellow marks indicate the 'best estimate' if specified in each study (refs 11,15,18,[30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42]. ), white marks indicate the median estimate, and lines indicate the 5-95% range.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

An integrated approach to quantifying uncertainties in the remaining carbon budget

Matthews

Tokarska

Rogelj

et al. 2021

Commun Earth Environ

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The remaining carbon budget quantifies the future CO2 emissions to limit global warming below a desired level. Carbon budgets are subject to uncertainty in the Transient Climate Response to Cumulative CO2 Emissions (TCRE), as well as to non-CO2 climate influences. Here we estimate the TCRE using observational constraints, and integrate the geophysical and socioeconomic uncertainties affecting the distribution of the remaining carbon budget. We estimate a median TCRE of 0.44 °C and 5–95% range of 0.32–0.62 °C per 1000 GtCO2 emitted. Considering only geophysical uncertainties, our median estimate of the 1.5 °C remaining carbon budget is 440 GtCO2 from 2020 onwards, with a range of 230–670 GtCO2, (for a 67–33% chance of not exceeding the target). Additional socioeconomic uncertainty related to human decisions regarding future non-CO2 emissions scenarios can further shift the median 1.5 °C remaining carbon budget by ±170 GtCO2.

show abstract

mentioning

confidence: 99%

An integrated approach to quantifying uncertainties in the remaining carbon budget

Matthews

Tokarska

Rogelj

et al. 2021

Commun Earth Environ

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The climate response after net zero emissions is an important climate metric, encapsulated in the zero emissions commitment (ZEC) given by the mean surface air temperature change after CO2 emissions cease (Hare and Meinshausen, 2006;Caldeira, 2008, Froelicher andPaynter, 2015;MacDougall et al, 2020).…”

Section: The Zero Emissions Commitmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Climate model projections reveal a simple near-linear relationship between the global surface air temperature change and cumulative CO2 emissions between 0 and ~2000 PgC (MacDougall, 2016). However, 60 despite a similar linear dependence, there is a wide inter-model range in TCRE values (Williams et al, 2017;Spafford and MacDougall, 2020), varying from 1.4 to 2.5 °C TtC -1 in intermediate-complexity Earth system models (Eby et al, 2013), 0.8 to 2.4 °C TtC -1 in full-complexity Earth system models (Matthews et al, 2018), and 0.7 to 2 °C TtC -1 (90 % confidence interval) in observationally-constrained TCRE estimates from a 15-member CMIP5 ensemble (Gillett et al, 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Whether there is continued surface warming depends on a competition between a cooling effect from the reduction of the radiative forcing from atmospheric CO2 as carbon is taken up by the ocean and terrestrial biosphere versus a surface warming effect from a decline in the heat uptake by the ocean interior (Williams et al, 2017b). In an analysis of Earth system model responses, MacDougall et al (2020) found that the model mean for the ZEC was close to zero, but that there 425 was a wide spread in continued warming and cooling responses from individual models.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Assessment of negative and positive CO2 emissions on global warming metrics using large ensemble Earth system model simulations

Vakilifard

Williams

Turner

et al. 2022

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. The benefits of implementing negative emission technologies for a century (years 2070–2170) on the global warming response to cumulative carbon emissions until year 2420 are assessed with a comprehensive set of intermediate complexity Earth system model integrations. Model integrations include 82 different model realisations covering a wide range of plausible climate states. The global warming response is assessed in terms of two key climate metrics: the effective transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions (eTCRE), measuring the surface warming response to cumulative carbon emissions and associated non-CO2 (RCP4.5) forcing, and the zero emissions commitment (ZEC), measuring the extent of any continued warming after net zero is reached. The TCRE is approximated from eTCRE by removing the contributions of non-CO2 forcing as 2.15 °C EgC−1 (with a 10–90 % range of 1.6 to 2.8 °C EgC−1). During the net positive emission phases, the eTCRE decreases from 2.62 (1.90 to 3.65) to 2.30 (1.73 to 3.23) °C EgC−1 due to a weakening in the increase in radiative forcing with an increase in atmospheric carbon, which is partly opposed by an increasing fraction of the radiative forcing warming the surface as the ocean stratifies. During the negative and zero emission phases, a progressive reduction of the eTCRE to 2.0 (1.4 to 2.8) °C EgC−1 is driven by the reducing airborne fraction as CO2 is drawn down by the ocean. The model uncertainty in the slopes of warming versus cumulative CO2 emissions varies from being controlled by the radiative feedback parameter during positive emissions to also being affected by ocean circulation and carbon-cycle parameters during zero or net-negative emissions. There is hysteresis in atmospheric CO2 and surface warming, where atmospheric CO2 and surface temperature are higher after peak emissions compared with before peak emissions. The continued warming after emissions cease defining the ZEC for the model mean without carbon capture is −0.01 °C at 25 years and decreases in time to −0.15 °C at 90 years after emissions cease. However, there is a spread in the ensemble with a temperature overshoot occurring in 50 % of the ensemble members at year 25. The ZEC only becomes negative in all ensemble members if modest carbon capture is included. Hence, incorporating negative emissions enhances the ability to meet climate targets and avoid risk of continued warming after net zero is reached.

show abstract

“…In previous studies, (e.g., Dessai et al, 2005;Wilks, 2006;Paeth et al, 2013;Vanem, 2015;Das and Umamahesh, 2017;Mandal and Simonovic, 2017;Mohammed et al, 2017;Jobst et al, 2018;Mackay et al, 2019;Rai et al, 2019;Spafford et al, 2020) the uncertainties in precipitation, temperature and streamflows of river basins are expressed in probabilistic terms, typically using PDF and sometimes PDF and CDF both. But in most of the previous studies, the uncertainties in low flows and high flows are not expressed in probabilistic terms such as PDF and CDF, even though they are very important for developing adaptation strategies in the river basins.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Uncertainties and nonstationarity in streamflow projections under climate change scenarios and the ensuing adaptation strategies in Subarnarekha river basin, India

2020

Global NEST: The International Journal

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The present study analyses the various uncertainties and nonstationarity in the streamflow projections of Subarnarekha river basin in Eastern India using two widely used hydrological climate models: 1) general circulation model (GCM), and 2) forcing climate change scenarios. These two climate models are used to force the ArcSWAT model. Subsequently this model is calibrated using SUFI-2 optimization technique. The downscaled and bias-corrected data from an ensemble of 10 climate projections with representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios (five each) were used in first model, whereas in second model a total of 63 (7 perturbed precipitations and 9 perturbed temperatures) combinations of hypothetical climate change scenarios were used. The results show very good correlation during monthly calibration time steps and relatively good agreement between the observed and simulated streamflows in daily calibration time steps. The uncertainties are expressed in probabilistic terms using probability density function (PDF) and cumulative distribution function (CDF) as they provide significant information for decision process in climate change adaptation in the river basin. The uncertainties associated with climate models, return periods and streamflow extremes are also analysed in the present work. The RCP 8.5 scenarios seem more appropriate than RCP 4.5 scenarios in quantifying the uncertainties under nonstationarity assumptions. The mean values of water balance components and their percentage variation for both historic and future periods reveal that the water balance components get affected significantly due to climate change in a future period. Consequently, the streamflows are likely to decline in the river basin. The present study also highlights the comprehensive approaches that are being planned to facilitate adaptation to climate change as well as those that are specific to the water resources management in the study region. The findings in this work are useful for overall well-being of people in the study area.

show abstract

Quantifying the probability distribution function of the transient climate response to cumulative CO₂ emissions

Cited by 8 publications

References 80 publications

An integrated approach to quantifying uncertainties in the remaining carbon budget

An integrated approach to quantifying uncertainties in the remaining carbon budget

Assessment of negative and positive CO<sub>2</sub> emissions on global warming metrics using large ensemble Earth system model simulations

Uncertainties and nonstationarity in streamflow projections under climate change scenarios and the ensuing adaptation strategies in Subarnarekha river basin, India

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About

Quantifying the probability distribution function of the transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions

Cited by 8 publications

References 80 publications

An integrated approach to quantifying uncertainties in the remaining carbon budget

An integrated approach to quantifying uncertainties in the remaining carbon budget

Assessment of negative and positive CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; emissions on global warming metrics using large ensemble Earth system model simulations

Uncertainties and nonstationarity in streamflow projections under climate change scenarios and the ensuing adaptation strategies in Subarnarekha river basin, India

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About

Quantifying the probability distribution function of the transient climate response to cumulative CO₂ emissions

Assessment of negative and positive CO<sub>2</sub> emissions on global warming metrics using large ensemble Earth system model simulations