Terrestrial water resource availability is fundamentally governed by the partitioning of inputs (precipitation, 𝐴𝐴 𝐴𝐴 ) to outputs (evapotranspiration, 𝐴𝐴 𝐴𝐴 , and runoff, 𝐴𝐴 𝐴𝐴 ) based on atmospheric demand (potential evapotranspiration, 𝐴𝐴 𝐴𝐴0 )and changes in storage (Milly, 1994). Given the critical nature of 𝐴𝐴 𝐴𝐴 in determining the water available for humans and ecosystems (Best, 2019;Rodell et al., 2018), the importance of a mechanistic understanding of landscape water budget partitioning and associated uncertainties is paramount. The largest source of errors in closing water budgets is uncertainty in 𝐴𝐴 𝐴𝐴 (Koppa et al., 2021), and thus a wide array of approaches has been developed for the measurement and estimation of 𝐴𝐴 𝐴𝐴 (see reviews in Wang and Dickinson (2012) and McMahon et al. (2013)). The determinants of 𝐴𝐴 𝐴𝐴 are hydroclimatic (water supply, 𝐴𝐴 𝐴𝐴 , and energy demand, 𝐴𝐴 𝐴𝐴0 ) and ecological (transpiration from plants comprises between 50% and 70% of 𝐴𝐴 𝐴𝐴 ; Lian et al., 2018;Stoy et al., 2019). In idealized ecohydrologically efficient landscapes, where the natural vegetation has adapted to local climate variability (Hunt et al., 2021;Troch et al., 2009), 𝐴𝐴 𝐴𝐴 will be maximized to the limit of the minimum of supply or output capacity. However, in real landscapes 𝐴𝐴 𝐸𝐸 (where overbar indicates long-term temporal mean) is also generally below the input and capacity limits of 𝐴𝐴 𝑃𝑃 and 𝐴𝐴 𝐸𝐸0 (Budyko, 1974;Gentine et al., 2012;Reaver et al., 2022), indicating hydrologic inefficiency. Much work has sought to explain and predict the observed natural variability in hydrologic inefficiency. An especially influential approach, strongly supported by observational evidence, has been the framework popularized by Budyko (1974) in which 𝐴𝐴 𝐸𝐸 is described by semi-empirical functions of aridity index 𝐴𝐴 𝐴𝐴= 𝐸𝐸0∕𝑃𝑃 that are generally known as Budyko curves. For example, observations of 𝐴𝐴 𝐸𝐸 from large collections of catchments (Gentine Abstract The mechanisms underlying observed global patterns of partitioning precipitation ( 𝐴𝐴 𝐴𝐴 ) to evapotranspiration ( 𝐴𝐴 𝐴𝐴 ) and runoff ( 𝐴𝐴 𝐴𝐴 ) are controversially debated. We test the hypothesis that asynchrony between climatic water supply and demand is sufficient to explain spatio-temporal variability of water availability. We developed a simple analytical model for 𝐴𝐴 𝐴𝐴 that is determined by four dimensionless characteristics of intra-annual water supply and demand asynchrony. The analytical model, populated with gridded climate data, accurately predicted global runoff patterns within 2%-4% of independent estimates from global climate models, with spatial patterns closely correlated to observations ( 𝐴𝐴 𝐴𝐴 2 = 0.93). The supply-demand asynchrony hypothesis provides a physically based explanation for variability of water availability using easily measurable characteristics of climate. The model revealed widespread responsiveness of water budgets to changes in climate asynchrony in almost every global region. Furthermore, the analytical model using global averages ...