Quantifying the Impact of Cascade Reservoirs on Streamflow, Drought, and Flood in the Jinsha River Basin

Zhang, Keyao; Xu, Yuan; Lu, Ying; Guo, Zipu; Wang, Jiahong; Luo, Hanmin

doi:10.3390/su15064989

Cited by 6 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 43 publications

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“…However, in the presence of large-scale regulating reservoirs upstream, their operation mitigates the increase in extreme runoff values caused by climate change, showcasing the peak-shaving effect of water engineering on river runoff [44]; therefore, no clear directional change in maximum runoff values is observed. Furthermore, attribution analysis of mean runoff changes (Table 8) indicates that large reservoirs have a storage effect on river runoff, reducing the long-term average runoff in the basin to some extent [45,46]. On the other hand, climate change has a positive impact on runoff, and its influence far exceeds that of reservoirs [47].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Improved Reservoir Module of SWAT Model with a Dispatch Function and Its Application on Assessing the Impact of Climate Change and Human Activities on Runoff Change

Sheng

Chen²,

et al. 2023

Water

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Climate change and human activities significantly impact the hydrological cycle, particularly in regions with numerous large-scale reservoirs. Recognizing the limitations of the reservoir module in the original SWAT model, this study presents an improved reservoir module based on a dispatch function to enhance runoff simulation. Its performance is validated by simulating daily runoff in the Jinsha River Basin, China. The scenario simulation approach is employed to quantitatively analyze the influences of climate change and human activities on runoff. And downscaled Global Climate Models (GCMs) are utilized to predict runoff for the next three decades. The results show that (1) the improved SWAT model outperforms the original model in runoff simulation; (2) during the test period, reservoir regulations caused a reduction of 26 m3/s in basin outlet runoff, while climate change led to an increase of 272 m3/s; and (3) future changes in basin outlet runoff over the next 30 years exhibit a high level of uncertainty, ranging from −5.6% to +11.0% compared to the base period. This study provides valuable insights into the hydrological impacts of climate change and human activities, highlighting the importance of incorporating an improved reservoir module in hydrological modeling for more accurate predictions and assessments.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Improved Reservoir Module of SWAT Model with a Dispatch Function and Its Application on Assessing the Impact of Climate Change and Human Activities on Runoff Change

Sheng

Chen²,

et al. 2023

Water

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“…To enhance drought prevention and drought management in the basin, it is particularly vital to investigate the hydrological evolution of drought in the JRB. For example, Zhang et al [21] extensively examined how the Jinsha River Reservoir influences runoff, flooding, and drought patterns. By combining long short-term memory (LSTM) modeling with flood-drought assessment techniques, their study revealed important findings.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Linkages between Meteorological and Hydrological Drought in the Jinsha River Basin under a Changing Environment

Zhang,

Peng

et al. 2023

Water

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The Jinsha River basin (JRB), known as China’s largest hydropower base, has been facing a surge in hydrological drought occurrences in the past several years. This study used the drought index model and soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) hydrological model to uncover the linkages between meteorological and hydrological drought using long-term datasets in the JRB. The results revealed that: (1) Over the past six decades, the JRB has experienced recurrent meteorological droughts, with the upper reaches being the most affected, accounting for a frequency of 17.5%. However, the frequency of drought in the middle and lower reaches has shown a marked increase in the last 15 years. (2) The frequency of hydrological drought in the JRB has been on the rise over the past six decades, with a particularly notable increase observed in the last two decades. Furthermore, a noticeable upward trend has been observed in the duration of these hydrological droughts. (3) The propagation durations from meteorological drought to hydrological drought exhibited noticeable seasonal differences in the JRB. The transmission duration during the flood season was shorter, whereas in the dry season, it was more protracted. Additionally, the connection between meteorological drought and hydrological drought demonstrates a weakening trend. The findings of this study hold significant implications for crafting an efficient reservoir dispatching strategy to safeguard the water security of the JRB.

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eZ flow metrics: Using z‐scores to estimate deviations from natural flow in the Colorado River below Glen Canyon Dam

Palmquist,

Deemer,

Metcalfe

et al. 2024

River Research & Apps

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River flow patterns are primary drivers of lotic ecosystems, and hundreds of metrics have been developed to quantify flow attributes. Although existing metrics have been a powerful tool in designing environmental flows, they are often developed with specific resources in mind and are rarely directly comparable with each other (i.e., units are often different). Here, we focus on natural flows as the resource of interest and develop z‐score metrics that measure the naturalness of regulated flows, incorporating natural means and interannual variation. These “eZ metrics” summarize whole year, subdaily, and functional flow patterns as standard deviations from natural such that their values are directly comparable. We illustrate their utility with a case study from the Colorado River downstream of Glen Canyon Dam in Arizona, USA. We calculated metrics for 1964–2022, spanning >5 decades of changing water policy, hydropower generation, and flow experimentation. We evaluate four options for estimating natural baseline flows. Across metrics, we found that subdaily stage variation deviated the most from baseline. Flows to satisfy regional water policy and power demands altered metrics more than designer flows (which target specific resource outcomes), and years with low water releases were closest to natural. Most of the designer flows have not made flow patterns more natural, due to incorrect seasonal timing, small magnitude, or short duration. By explicitly considering interannual variability and quantifying how regulated flows differ from natural using standard deviations, these metrics can inform management when the goal is to restore a natural flow regime.

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Quantifying the Impact of Cascade Reservoirs on Streamflow, Drought, and Flood in the Jinsha River Basin

Cited by 6 publications

References 43 publications

The Improved Reservoir Module of SWAT Model with a Dispatch Function and Its Application on Assessing the Impact of Climate Change and Human Activities on Runoff Change

The Improved Reservoir Module of SWAT Model with a Dispatch Function and Its Application on Assessing the Impact of Climate Change and Human Activities on Runoff Change

Linkages between Meteorological and Hydrological Drought in the Jinsha River Basin under a Changing Environment

eZ flow metrics: Using z‐scores to estimate deviations from natural flow in the Colorado River below Glen Canyon Dam

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