Quantifying the emergence of dengue inCE OF DENGUE IN HANOI, 1998-2009

Cuong, Hoang Quoc; Hiển, Nguyễn Trần; Dương, Trần Như; Phong, Trần Vũ; Cam, Nguyen Nhat; Wolbers, Marcel; Boni, Maciej F.; Horby, Peter

doi:10.1186/1753-6561-5-s1-p48

Cited by 13 publications

(11 citation statements)

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“…Similar to other studies in temperate 382 and tropical settings, we found that temperature, with its direct influence on mosquito 383 lifespan, aquatic development and extrinsic incubation period, was the key driver of seasonal 384 oscillations in the transmission potential [23,49,28,24]. Rainfall, on the other hand, only 385 played a marginal role and appeared to be a relevant player for arboviral transmission mainly 386 in tropical regions subject to intense rain seasons, such as areas in South East Asia [50,51]. 387 The oscillations in R 0 presented seasonal windows of maximum transmission potential during 388 the summer months between December and April.…”

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confidence: 59%

Epidemiological and ecological determinants of Zika virus transmission in an urban setting

Lourenço

Lima

Faria

et al. 2017

Preprint

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Zika has emerged as a global public health concern. Although its rapid geographic expansion can be attributed to the success of its Aedes mosquito vectors, local epidemiological drivers are still poorly understood. The city of Feira de Santana played a pivotal role in the early phases of the Chikungunya and Zika epidemics in Brazil. Here, using a climate-driven transmission model, we show that low Zika observation rates and a high vectorial capacity in this region were responsible for a high attack rate during the 2015 outbreak and the subsequent decline in cases in 2016, when the epidemic was peaking in the rest of the country. Our projections indicate that the balance between the loss of herd-immunity and the frequency of viral re-importation will dictate the transmission potential of Zika in this region in the near future. Sporadic outbreaks are expected but unlikely to be detected under current surveillance systems.

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confidence: 59%

Epidemiological and ecological determinants of Zika virus transmission in an urban setting

Lourenço

Lima

Faria

et al. 2017

Preprint

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“…These results are also consistent with those of the studies conducted in other tropical/sub-tropical environments. For example, some studies in Vietnam found that dengue was most prevalent in the wet season (Cuong, 2011, Pham et al, 2011, Toan, 2013. C= Cluster (n) = number of SLAs; *= Primary cluster; Sec = Secondary cluster; R= Radius; O=Observed cases; E=Expected cases; RR=Relative risk; LLR= Log-likelihood ratio Table 4: Space-time clusters of dengue identified using spatial scan test statistic…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hot spot detection and spatio-temporal dynamics of dengue in Queensland, Australia

Naish

Tong

2014

Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci.

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Commission VI, WG VI/4KEY WORDS: Clusters, Dengue, Geographical information systems, Spatiotemporal, Spatial autocorrelation ABSTRACT:Dengue has been a major public health concern in Australia since it re-emerged in Queensland in 1992Queensland in -1993. This study explored spatio-temporal distribution and clustering of locally-acquired dengue cases in Queensland State, Australia and identified target areas for effective interventions. A computerised locally-acquired dengue case dataset was collected from Queensland Health for Queensland from 1993 to 2012. Descriptive spatial and temporal analyses were conducted using geographic information system tools and geostatistical techniques. Dengue hot spots were detected using SatScan method. Descriptive spatial analysis showed that a total of 2,398 locally-acquired dengue cases were recorded in central and northern regions of tropical Queensland. A seasonal pattern was observed with most of the cases occurring in autumn. Spatial and temporal variation of dengue cases was observed in the geographic areas affected by dengue over time. Tropical areas are potential high-risk areas for mosquito-borne diseases such as dengue. This study demonstrated that the locally-acquired dengue cases have exhibited a spatial and temporal variation over the past twenty years in tropical Queensland, Australia. There is a clear evidence for the existence of statistically significant clusters of dengue and these clusters varied over time. These findings enabled us to detect and target dengue clusters suggesting that the use of geospatial information can assist the health authority in planning dengue control activities and it would allow for better design and implementation of dengue management programs.* Corresponding author. This is useful to know for communication with the appropriate person in cases with more than one author.

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“…These findings are similar to what has been reported for rainfall and mean temperature in Vietnam (lag 1-2 months). 11 The seasonality of cases as well as the seasonality of rainfall and temperature were largely consistent across years ( Figure 2A). Health-care providers should prepare for increased numbers of dengue cases in August and September.…”

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confidence: 90%

Seasonal Distribution and Climatic Correlates of Dengue Disease in Dhaka, Bangladesh

Morales

Salje

Saha

et al. 2016

The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene

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Abstract. Dengue has been regularly reported in Dhaka, Bangladesh, since a large outbreak in 2000. However, to date, we have limited information on the seasonal distribution of dengue disease and how case distribution correlates with climate. Here, we analyzed dengue cases detected at a private diagnostic facility in Dhaka during 2010-2014. We calculated Pearson cross-correlation coefficients to examine the relationship between the timing of cases and both rainfall and temperature. There were 2,334 cases diagnosed during the study period with 76% over the age of 15 years. Cases were reported in every month of the study; however, 90% of cases occurred between June and November. Increases in rainfall were correlated with increases in cases 2 months later (correlation of 0.7). The large proportion of adult cases is consistent with substantial population susceptibility and suggests Dhaka remains at risk for outbreaks. Although cases occurred year-round, public health preparedness should be focused during peak months.Dengue is caused by infection with the dengue virus (DENV), a member of the genus Flavivirus and is transmitted by two principal mosquito vectors of the genus Aedes: Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus.1 It is estimated that about 400 million dengue infections occur each year in tropical and subtropical countries.1,2 There are four DENV serotypes, and a primary infection usually results in mild disease; however, reinfection with a different DENV serotype is more likely to result in dengue hemorrhagic fever, a more severe disease manifestation.2 Dengue incidence has been associated with variations in climate. Increased rainfall supports vector habitat availability, and high temperatures promote mosquito development.3 Dengue epidemics often occur seasonally, with more cases found during wetter and warmer months. However, the complex role of local immunity patterns and population structure on transmission means that the relationship between incidence and climate remains poorly understood and often differs across settings because of local climate heterogeneity, circulating DENV serotypes, and virus-host interactions.

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Quantifying the emergence of dengue inCE OF DENGUE IN HANOI, 1998-2009

Cited by 13 publications

References 0 publications

Epidemiological and ecological determinants of Zika virus transmission in an urban setting

Epidemiological and ecological determinants of Zika virus transmission in an urban setting

Hot spot detection and spatio-temporal dynamics of dengue in Queensland, Australia

Seasonal Distribution and Climatic Correlates of Dengue Disease in Dhaka, Bangladesh

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