Quantifying the effects of human activities and climate variability on runoff changes using variable infiltration capacity model

Abstract

Detecting and assessing changes in the hydrologic cycle and its response to a changing environment is essential for maintaining regional ecological security and restoring degraded ecosystems. There is no clear scientific evidence on the effects of human activities and climate variability on runoff and its components in typical arid areas. Therefore, in this study, a heuristic segmentation algorithm, a variable infiltration capacity model (VIC), and remote sensing data to quantify the effects of human activities and climate variability on runoff in the catchment of Lake Ebinur, Xinjiang, China. The results found: (1) The heuristic segmentation algorithm divided the study period into reference period (1964–1985) and two impact periods: I (1986–2000) and II (2001–2017). (2) Cropland and forest land showed an increasing trend, with grassland and barren land accounting for most of the increase. At the same time, the leaf area index (LAI) increased by 0.002 per year during the growing season. (3) Compared with the reference period, runoff depth decreased by 108.80 mm in impact period I due to human activities, but increased by 110.5 mm due to climate variability, resulting in an overall increase in runoff depth of 1.72 mm. Runoff depth increased by 11.10 mm in the impact period II compared to the reference period, with climate variability resulting in an increase of 154.40 mm, but human activities resulted in a decrease of 143.30 mm. Our results shed light on decision-making related to water stress in changing circumstances in arid regions.

Interaction of surface water and groundwater in Nida valley, Poland

“…Conversely, prolonged dry periods in summer can result in a drop in water levels (Kubicz, 2019;Ahmad et al, 2021;Belemtougri et al, 2021;Merz et al, 2021). The global climate patterns, particularly precipitation and air temperature, have a notable effect on river water levels (Dettinger, Diaz, 2000;Chang et al, 2016;Ghotbi et al, 2020;Wei et al, 2020;Lv et al, 2021;Bao, Ding and Han, 2022;Li et al, 2023). The data obtained from meteorological monitoring stations on precipitation and air temperature in the study area, as shown in Figure 3, align well with the measurements recorded by the piezometer.…”

Optimal Scheduling of Reservoir Flood Control under Non-Stationary Conditions

“…Then, the heuristic segmentation algorithm was used to test and review the final variation points. The computational principle of the heuristic segmentation algorithm is briefly described below [31].…”

Quantifying the Contributions of Regional Human Activities and Global Climate Change to the Regional Climate in a Typical Mountain‐Oasis‐Desert System of Arid Central Asia From 1979 to 2018

“…Distinguishing the quantitative impacts of global climate change and regional human activities on regional climate change is essential for determining the dominant factor influencing regional climate change. At present, many studies have attempted to quantify the contributions of global climate change and human activities to hydrological fields (Bao et al., 2022; Q. Li, Wang, et al., 2021; Q. Li, Li, et al., 2021; Zhang et al., 2020) or hydroclimatic fields (Dai, 2021; Wu et al., 2020), such as runoff and evapotranspiration. Most of them used linear correlation, statistical methods of land surface assimilation data, few of them were able to reliably and scientifically answer this question in relation to arid endorheic regions (D. Peng et al., 2018) by using dynamic land‐atmosphere interaction climate models, and most climate models lacked a comprehensive description of regional human activities, especially the irrigation process, which is a key human activity in this area.…”

“…Distinguishing the quantitative impacts of global climate change and regional human activities on regional climate change is essential for determining the dominant factor influencing regional climate change. At present, many studies have attempted to quantify the contributions of global climate change and human activities to hydrological fields (Bao et al, 2022;Q. Li, Wang, et al, 2021;Q.…”