Quantifying the effects of climate and watershed structure changes on runoff variations in the Tao River basin by using three different methods under the Budyko framework

Guan, Xiaoxiang; Zhang, Jianyun; Yang, Qinli; Wang, Guoqing

doi:10.1007/s00704-021-03894-5

Cited by 8 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 51 publications

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“…During the past decades, researchers have done lots of work to quantify Pw for the accurate simulation of evapotranspiration or runoff using the Budyko framework (Wang et al, 2022;Yao et al, 2017;Guo et al, 2019;Yu et al, 2021) and considerably improved the estimation of Pw by taking into account the influence of watershed characteristics (Fu, 1981;Liu and Liang, 2015;Guan et al, 2022;Yang et al, 2008). Although there is agreement that Pw represents the integrated effects of various environmental factors (Wang et al, 2022;S.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Revisiting the hydrological basis of the Budyko framework with the principle of hydrologically similar groups

Chen¹,

Chen²,

Xue³

et al. 2023

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. The Budyko framework is a simple and effective tool for estimating the water balance of watersheds. Quantification of the watershed-characteristic-related parameter (Pw) is critical for accurate water balance simulations with the Budyko framework. However, there is no universal method for calculating Pw as the interactions between hydrologic, climatic, and watershed characteristic factors differ greatly across watersheds. To fill this research gap, this study introduced the principle of hydrologically similar groups into the Budyko framework for quantifying the Pw of watersheds in similar environments. We first classified the 366 selected watersheds worldwide into six hydrologically similar groups based on watershed attributes, including climate, soil, and vegetation. Results show that soil moisture (SM) and fractional vegetation cover (FVC) are two controlling factors of the Pw in each group. The SM exhibits a power-law relationship with the Pw values, with increasing SM leading to higher Pw values in dry watersheds (SM ≤ 20 mm) and lower Pw values in humid watersheds (SM > 20 mm). Additionally, the FVC shows to be linearly correlated with the Pw values in most hydrologically similar groups, except in that group with moist soil and no strong rainfall seasonality (SM >20 mm and seasonal index (SI) ≤ 0.4). Multiple non-linear regression models between Pw and the controlling factors (SM and FVC) were developed to individually estimate the Pw of six hydrologically similar groups. Cross-validations using the bootstrap sampling method (R2=0.63) and validations of time-series Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC) data (R2=0.89) both indicate that the proposed models perform satisfactorily in estimating the Pw parameter in the Budyko framework. Overall, this study is a new attempt to quantify the unknown Pw in the Budyko framework using the method for hydrologically similar groups. The results will be helpful in improving the applicability of the Budyko framework for estimating the annual runoff of watersheds in diverse climates and with different characteristics.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Revisiting the hydrological basis of the Budyko framework with the principle of hydrologically similar groups

Chen¹,

Chen²,

Xue³

et al. 2023

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…With changing climate, water availability is changing all over the world (Guan et al., 2022; Konapala et al., 2020; Koutroulis et al., 2019; Mekonnen & Hoekstra, 2016; Pokhrel et al., 2021). The change may be an increase or a decrease in overall water availability.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Examining the Water Scarcity Vulnerability in US River Basins Due To Changing Climate

Wolkeba,

Kumar,

Mekonnen

2023

Geophysical Research Letters

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Accurate assessment of changes in water availability with changing climate is vital for effective mitigation and adaptation. In this research, we employ a parsimonious Budyko curve method to evaluate changes in water availability under low‐ (SSP126) and high‐emission (SSP585) scenarios for 331 river basins in the contiguous United States. We also assess the relative role of changes in precipitation (∆P) and potential evapotranspiration (∆PET) with changing climate on the increase in water availability vulnerability. Results highlight that around 43% (28%) of basins are projected to experience increased vulnerability to changing climate in high‐emission (low‐emission) scenarios. Sub‐humid basins are most often impacted, while arid and semi‐arid basins exhibit lower sensitivity to changes. Intriguingly, ∆PET emerges as the dominant control on vulnerability, surpassing ∆P, particularly under SSP585 scenario. The analysis prompts water managers to focus on long‐term mitigation planning and scientists to further constraint climate and water budget forecasts in affected basins.

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“…These parametric equations have somewhat improved the estimation performance by taking into account the influence of watershed characteristics and thus have better estimation performance (Fu, 1981;Liu and Liang, 2015;Guan et al, 2022;Yang et al, 2008). Along with the widely used parametric equations, there has been a growing importance placed on research on the watershed characteristic parameter (Pw) as its accurate estimation is a prerequisite for the accurate simulation of 60 evapotranspiration or runoff using the Budyko framework Yao et al, 2017;Guo et al, 2019;Yu et al, 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Revisiting the Hydrological Basis of the Budyko Framework With the Hydrologically Similar Groups Principle

Chen

Chen²,

Xue³

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Abstract. The Budyko framework is a simple but effective tool for watershed water balance estimation. Accurate estimation of the watershed characteristic parameter (Pw) is critical to accurate water balance simulations using the Budyko framework. However, there is no universal quantification criterion for the Pw because of the complex interactions between hydrologic, climatic, and watershed characteristic factors at global scales. Therefore, this research introduced the hydrologically similar groups principle into the Budyko framework and defined the criteria for quantifying Pw in similar environments. We classified global watersheds into six groups based on watershed attributes, including climate, soil moisture, and vegetation, and identified the controlling factors of the Pw in each hydrologically similar group. Our results show that the Pw is closely related to soil moisture (SM) and the power function gradually changes from positive to negative as soil moisture increases. The relationship between the Pw and fractional vegetation cover (FVC) can be described with different linear equations in different hydrologic similarity groups, except in the group with no strong seasonality and moist soils. Based on these relationships, a model for estimating the Pw (PwM) was established with multiple non-linear regression methods between the Pw and its controlling factors (SM and FVC). Then, we used bootstrapping and runoff reconstruction methods to verify the usability of PwM. The validation results illustrate that PwM overall presents a satisfactory performance through bootstrapping (R2 = 0.63) and runoff reconstruction (R2 = 0.89). Results show that the hydrologically similar groups method can quantify the Pw and the improved Budyko framework can aptly simulate global runoff, especially in humid watersheds. This study lays the basis for explaining the Pw in the Budyko framework and improves the applicability of the Budyko framework for estimating global runoff.

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Quantifying the effects of climate and watershed structure changes on runoff variations in the Tao River basin by using three different methods under the Budyko framework

Cited by 8 publications

References 51 publications

Revisiting the hydrological basis of the Budyko framework with the principle of hydrologically similar groups

Revisiting the hydrological basis of the Budyko framework with the principle of hydrologically similar groups

Examining the Water Scarcity Vulnerability in US River Basins Due To Changing Climate

Revisiting the Hydrological Basis of the Budyko Framework With the Hydrologically Similar Groups Principle

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