Quantifying the Effects of Climate Variability and Direct Human Activities on the Change in Mean Annual Runoff for the Bahe River (Northwest China)

Mo, Shuhong; Li, Zilong; Gou, Kui; Qin, Lin; Shen, Bing

doi:10.2112/jcoastres-d-16-00159.1

Cited by 21 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…To quantify the impacts of climate variability and human activities on water resources in a basin, different kind of approaches have been reported in the literature. These are divided into four main categories, i.e., hydrological modelling approaches, as in (Hu et al, 2015), conceptual methods, as in (Mo et al, 2018), analytical approaches, as in (Tang and Lettenmaier, 2012), and experimental approaches, as in (Huang et al, 2003) and are reviewed comprehensively by (Dey and Mishra, 2017). In the present study, the hydrological simulation method was applied to separate and quantify the impacts of climate variability and human activities on rapidly decreasing inflow to Lake Chad.…”

Section: Impacts Of Climate and Human On Streamflow To Lake Chadmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of causes of decreasing inflow to the Lake Chad due to climate variability and human activities

Mahmood

Jia

2018

Preprint

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Abstract. In the 1960s, Lake Chad was the world’s sixth largest water body, which has since shrunk dramatically from a surface area of 25,000 km2 to only 2,000 km2 in the following 40 years. In the present study, hydro-climatic variability in the Chari-Logone, Komadugu-Yobe, YENG (Yedseram, El-Beid, Ngadda and Gubio basins) as well as Lake Fitri basins and decreasing streamflow to Lake Chad due to climate variability and human activities were separated and quantified using trend analysis, change point analysis, and hydrological approach, for the period of 1951–2015. The results showed very strong signals (α = 0.001) of increasing trend in mean temperature, with an average increase of 1.4 °C, and very weak (α = 0.1) to strong (α = 0.01) decreasing signals in precipitation, with an average decrease of 15 %. In case of streamflow to Lake Chad, very strong decreasing trends were observed, showing 67 % reduction for the whole period. The north-eastern parts were most affected parts in case of increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation. Decreasing flow due to both climate variability and human activities were ranged from 34 % to 45 % in different decades, from 1972 to 2013. On the whole, a 66 % of total decline in streamflow was observed due to human activities and 34 % due to climate variability. Most reduction in streamflow (59 %) due to climate variability was explored only during 1982–1991 because a devastating drought was occurred during this period. Since human activities caused most reduction in streamflow to Lake Chad than climate, inflow to the lake can be improved by reducing or properly managing the human activities and using sustainable water resources management.

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Section: Impacts Of Climate and Human On Streamflow To Lake Chadmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of causes of decreasing inflow to the Lake Chad due to climate variability and human activities

Mahmood

Jia

2018

Preprint

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“…Various methods have been implemented to evaluate the influences of climate change and human activity on the annual runoff patterns of river basins. For example, the elastic coefficient method [5], the cumulative slope method [6], the precipitation-runoff regression relation method [7], the Budyko conceptual model analysis method [8], the method of reconstructing natural runoff by using hydrological model [9][10][11], and so on.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Runoff Evolution and the Differences Analysis of the Causes of Runoff Change in Different Regions: A Case of the Weihe River Basin, Northern China

Yang

Wang

2019

Sustainability

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The runoff levels of the major hydrological stations in the Weihe river basin (WRB) have been found to present decreasing trends. However, the conspicuous spatial differences in the hydro-meteorological conditions have led to variations in the rainfall–runoff pattern in each of the sub-basin areas. The aims of this research study were to reveal the main factors contributing to the runoff changes in the different regions—and it has significance in the water resources rational allocation and protection in the different regions. Three statistical methods were used to analyze the law of precipitation and runoffs of five hydrological stations. The SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model was used to reconstruct the runoff in the impact period. The effects of climate change and human activity on runoff were separated by comparing measured runoff and reconstructed runoff. The results show that the closer the proximity to the downstream hydrological station, the more the runoff decreased. In the tributaries and upstream hydrological stations (Zhuanhtou (ZT), Zhangjiashan (ZJS), and Linjiacun (LJC)), from 1970 to 2016, the dominant factor of the runoff reduction was determined to be climate change, and accounted for 148.2%, 98.9%, and 90.5%, respectively. In the hydrological stations of middle and lower reaches (Xianyang (XY) and Huaxian (HX)), the contributions of the climate change to the runoff reduction were 49.7% and 44.3%, respectively, and the impacts of human activity accounted for 50.3% and 55.7%. The impacts of human activity on the runoff reduction were slightly greater than that of the climate change. Due to the different leading factors affecting runoff change in the basin, in response to future climate change, for tributaries and upstream areas, land use should be rationally planned to achieve the optimal balance of water volume in each part of the basin, which is of great significance to the protection and utilization of water resources. As for the middle and downstream regions, reasonable planning should also be focused on the amount of water withdraw, water resource allocations, and water conservancy project construction. According to the factors affecting runoff, corresponding strategies are proposed for different regions, which have important research significance for the protection and sustainable development of watershed water resources.

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“…Gao et al [24] found that the contribution rate of human activities to runoff was 87.20% in the middle reaches of the Huaihe River Basin, China, while that due to climate change was 12.80%. The results of Mo et al [25] indicated that 35.3% of the reduction in annual runoff was caused by human activities and that a 2.2% increase in annual runoff could be attributed to climate change. This finding means that human impact rather than climate exerts the dominant influence on runoff decline in the Bahe River basin, China.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impact of Reservoirs on Runoff Under Climate Change: A Case of Nierji Reservoir in China

Men

Liu

Tian

et al. 2019

Water

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Reservoirs play an important role in responding to natural disasters (such as flood and drought) by controlling the runoff. With the climate changing, the frequency and intensity of flood and drought are likely to increase. Thus, the impact of reservoirs on runoff under climate change needs to be studied to cope with future floods and drought. In this study, the Nierji Reservoir located on the Nenjiang River Basin was chosen to explore the impact. The Nenjiany River Basin is the vital water source in the water resources transfer project in Northeast China. Climate change in Nenjiang River Basin was analyzed using the 1980 to 2013 climate observations. The results show that the temperature of the basin significantly (p < 0.05) increased while the precipitation significantly (p < 0.05) decreased. Based on the result, nine kinds of different climate scenarios were set up. For different climate scenarios, the Hydroinformatic Modeling System (HIMS) model and the HIMS model with the reservoir calculation module were used to simulate runoff during the no reservoir operation period (1980–2000) and reservoir operation period (2007–2013), respectively. The impact of reservoirs on runoff under climate change is studied. Results show that the Nierji Reservoir can effectively relieve the impact of climate change on downstream runoff. When temperature increases or precipitation decreases, there are larger differences in runoff over the non-flood period, especially during periods of no reservoir operation. Reservoir operation under climate change can provide reliability in drought protection.

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Quantifying the Effects of Climate Variability and Direct Human Activities on the Change in Mean Annual Runoff for the Bahe River (Northwest China)

Cited by 21 publications

References 35 publications

Analysis of causes of decreasing inflow to the Lake Chad due to climate variability and human activities

Analysis of causes of decreasing inflow to the Lake Chad due to climate variability and human activities

The Runoff Evolution and the Differences Analysis of the Causes of Runoff Change in Different Regions: A Case of the Weihe River Basin, Northern China

The Impact of Reservoirs on Runoff Under Climate Change: A Case of Nierji Reservoir in China

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