Quantifying the effects of climate trends in the past 43 years (1961–2003) on crop growth and water demand in the North China Plain

Abstract

This paper explores changes in climatic variables, including solar radiation, rainfall, fraction of diffuse radiation (FDR) and temperature, during wheat season (October to May) and maize season (June to September) from 1961 to 2003 at four sites in the North China Plain (NCP), and evaluates the effects of these changes on crop growth processes, productivity and water demand by using the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator. A significant decline in radiation and rainfall was detected during the 43 years, while both temperature and FDR exhibit an increasing trend in both wheat and maize seasons. The average trend of each climatic variable for each crop season from the four sites is that radiation decreased by 13.2 and 6.2 MJ m −2 a −1 , precipitation decreased by 0.1 and 1.8 mm a −1 , minimum temperature increased by 0.05 and 0.02• C a −1 , maximum temperature increased by 0.03 and 0.01• C a −1 , FDR increased by 0.21 and 0.38% a −1 during wheat and maize season, respectively. Simulated crop water demand and potential yield was significantly decreased because of the declining trend in solar radiation. On average, crop water demand was decreased by 2.3 mm a −1 for wheat and 1.8 mm a −1 for maize if changes in crop variety were not considered. Simulated potential crop yields under fully irrigated condition declined about 45.3 kg ha contribute to the increase in actual crop yield for the wheat-maize double cropping system, contrasted to the decline in the potential crop yield. Further research on how the improvement in crop varieties and management practices can counteract the impact of climatic change may provide insight into the future sustainability of wheat-maize double crop rotations in the NCP.

Contributions of cultivar shift, management practice and climate change to maize yield in North China Plain in 1981–2009

“…Daily solar radiation, precipitation, and maximum/minimum air temperatures are the minimum weather input requirements of the model. APSIM is widely used in Australia, the USA, Netherlands, North Africa, China, and elsewhere around the globe (Asseng et al 2000;Chen et al 2010;Liu et al 2012;Xiao and Tao 2014).…”

“…This study suggested that the increase in temperature had a negative impact on maize yield and that warming climate in 1981-2009 reduced maize yield by 0.1-0.3 % per year. Warmer climate generally accelerated crop development and thereby shortened the duration of the maize growing season (Chen et al 2010;Xiao et al 2015). Furthermore, the impact of temperature on grain yield is especially notable when higher temperatures occur at flowering stage (Wheeler et al 2000;Liu et al 2010).…”

“…Other studies also suggest that warming climate trends in the past several decades have had negative effects on maize production in the region (Liu et al 2010;Chen et al 2010). Generally, warming climate accelerates phenological development, shortens the crop growth period, and reduces the duration of photosynthesis and biomass accumulation (Xiao et al 2013;.…”

Increased yield potential of wheat-maize cropping system in the North China Plain by climate change adaptation

“…These parameters were derived by matching the simulated and observed stages of phenology and grain yield of wheat and maize with a trial-and-error method. More detailed descriptions of crop parameters and soil parameters are given by Chen (2008) and Chen et al (2010b).…”

“…Extensive studies showed that China's climate has generally become warmer and drier, especially since late 1970s and across the north part of China (Lin 1996;Smit and Cai 1996;Chen et al 1998;Tao et al 2006). Such trends were considered to reduce the length of crop growing periods and potential yield (Chen et al 2010b). The decline in rainfall at some locations should also have impact on crop yield (Xiong et al 2007;Tao et al 2008).…”