2019
DOI: 10.1038/s41586-019-1725-y
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Quantifying the dynamics of failure across science, startups and security

Abstract: Human achievements are often preceded by repeated attempts that initially fail, yet little is known about the mechanisms governing the dynamics of failure. Here, building on the rich literature on innovation 1-10 , human dynamics 11-17 and learning 18-25 , we develop a simple one-parameter model that mimics how successful future attempts build on those past. Analytically solving this model reveals a phase transition that separates dynamics of failure into regions of stagnation or progression, predicting that n… Show more

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Cited by 55 publications
(30 citation statements)
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References 81 publications
(100 reference statements)
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“…Successful innovation networks quickly learn from their failures and build upon their successes ( Yin et al., 2019 ). By drawing on multiple incentive structures and skill sets within environments of trust, OSPs can rapidly validate results by members not directly involved in the original research.…”
Section: Innovating the Innovation System Through Open Science Partnershipsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Successful innovation networks quickly learn from their failures and build upon their successes ( Yin et al., 2019 ). By drawing on multiple incentive structures and skill sets within environments of trust, OSPs can rapidly validate results by members not directly involved in the original research.…”
Section: Innovating the Innovation System Through Open Science Partnershipsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Yet, high levels of risk aversion can limit learning and thwart opportunities to improve future programs; indeed, more may be learned from failures than success (Redford and Taber, 2000). Notably, research from other fields shows that success is often preceded by repeated failures (e.g., see Yin et al, 2019). Of course, some organizations may anticipate that monitoring may produce results that are uncomfortable, and therefore elect to avoid monitoring altogether.…”
Section: Avoid Excessive Risk Aversionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Focusing on publications as the primary data source for science of science studies has limited the insights on collaborations, ideas, and projects only to those that were successful in producing publishable results. However, failure is common and often instrumental for ultimate success (Yin et. al., 2019;Bol, de Vaan, & van de Rijt, 2018).…”
Section: Success and Failure Of Projectsmentioning
confidence: 99%