Quantifying the Dynamics of COVID-19 Burden and Impact of Interventions in Java, Indonesia

Djaafara, Bimandra A; Whittaker, Charles; Watson, Oliver J; Verity, Robert; Brazeau, Nicholas F.; Widyastuti, Widyastuti; Oktavia, Dwi; Adrian, Verry; Salama, Ngabila; Bhatia, Sangeeta; Nouvellet, Pierre; Sherrard-Smith, Ellie; Churcher, Thomas S; Surendra, Henry; Lina, Rosa N; Ekawati, Lenny L.; Lestari, Karina D; Andrianto, Adhi; Thwaites, Guy; Baird, J. Kevin; Ghani, Azra C; Elyazar, Iqbal; Walker, Patrick

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3781647

Cited by 4 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 0 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…This model provides estimates of excess mortality for many countries where there is no reliable COVID‐19 mortality data for such estimation—or only unrepresentative data, typically from small studies conducted in urban centers (e.g., Jakarta, Indonesia: Djaafara et al. 2021; Khartoum, Sudan: Watson et al. 2020; Damascus, Syria: Watson et al.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global and National Declines in Life Expectancy: An End‐of‐2021 Assessment

Heuveline¹

2022

Population & Development Rev

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Timely, high‐quality mortality data have allowed for assessments of the impact of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) on life expectancies in upper‐middle‐ and high‐income countries. Extant data, though imperfect, suggest that the bulk of the pandemic‐induced mortality might have occurred elsewhere. This article reports on changes in life expectancies around the world as far as they can be estimated from the evidence available at the end of 2021. The global life expectancy appears to have declined by 0.92 years between 2019 and 2020 and by another 0.72 years between 2020 and 2021, but the decline seems to have ended during the last quarter of 2021. Uncertainty about its exact size aside, this represents the first decline in global life expectancy since 1950, the first year for which a global estimate is available from the United Nations. Annual declines in life expectancy (from a 12‐month period to the next) appear to have exceeded two years at some point before the end of 2021 in at least 50 countries. Since 1950, annual declines of that magnitude had only been observed on rare occasions, such as Cambodia in the 1970s, Rwanda in the 1990s, and possibly some sub‐Saharan African nations at the peak of the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) pandemic.

show abstract

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global and National Declines in Life Expectancy: An End‐of‐2021 Assessment

Heuveline¹

2022

Population & Development Rev

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Nouvellet et al and Djafaara et al used COVID-19 death data to estimate R t directly using the renewal equation. [ 17 , 59 ] Others have estimated R t from the incidence of infection or symptom onset, back-calculated from the observed incidence of death. [ 22 , 44 ] Epidemia and EpiNow2 use a similar approach, and estimates can be based on incidence by date of infection, hospital admission or death.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…[7, Fifteen papers fell into both categories i.e., used the original EpiEstim method as a baseline to compare a new approach to. [16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30] We classified the 106 issues addressed in the 54 papers proposing modifications into 13 categories (Fig 3). The most common included delays in the reporting of cases or missing data (n = 20), weekly administrative noise (n = 11), choice of prior for R t (n = 15), and modelling different regions at the same time (n = 13).…”

Section: Questionnairementioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Real-time estimation of the epidemic reproduction number: Scoping review of the applications and challenges

2022

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The time-varying reproduction number (Rt) is an important measure of transmissibility during outbreaks. Estimating whether and how rapidly an outbreak is growing (Rt > 1) or declining (Rt < 1) can inform the design, monitoring and adjustment of control measures in real-time. We use a popular R package for Rt estimation, EpiEstim, as a case study to evaluate the contexts in which Rt estimation methods have been used and identify unmet needs which would enable broader applicability of these methods in real-time. A scoping review, complemented by a small EpiEstim user survey, highlight issues with the current approaches, including the quality of input incidence data, the inability to account for geographical factors, and other methodological issues. We summarise the methods and software developed to tackle the problems identified, but conclude that significant gaps remain which should be addressed to enable easier, more robust and applicable estimation of Rt during epidemics.

show abstract

“…However, the information conveyed by government's PSAs can fail to change the public's behaviour, leading to unfavourable circumstances. For instance, despite government's announcements for people to wear masks during the current pandemic, the public does not obey the message, leading to a rising count of Covid-19 infected individuals (Djaafara et al, 2020;Nasir, Baeguni, & Nurmansyah, 2020). This study intends to address the problem by investigating the implicature in Covid-19 PSAs, specifically ones launched by the government of the Republic of Indonesia.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Telling People to Change Their Behaviour Through Implications: An Implicature Analysis on Covid-19 Public Service Announcements in Indonesia

Marbun

Silalahi

Herman

2021

Elsya

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Public service announcements (PSAs) are the official way for governments to inform, educate and change public behaviour in order to reduce public health issues, such as Covid-19. This study aims to analyse the types of implicatures in the Covid-19 PSAs published by the Ministry of Health Republic of Indonesia in their Instagram account, @kemenkes_ri, in order to fill the research gap on implicature studies in a public health and political contexts. This qualitative descriptive research analysed a data of eleven Covid-19 PSAs which were published from March 2020 to January 2021 according to Grice’s implicature theory. The researchers discovered that PSAs employed conversational implicatures more frequently than conventional implicatures (18%) to deliver their messages, with generalised conversational implicature being more prevalent (64%) than particularised conversational implicature (18%). Conventional implicature was used only in earlier posts when Covid-19 has not been a common knowledge among the public, and once people are already used to the “new normal”, alter PSAs used conversational implicature because the public already have the context of Covid-19. Results of this study illuminated the differences between each type of implicatures and also contributed to the lack of studies of PSAs’ implied meanings, the dearth of implicature studies in a non-classroom context.

show abstract

Quantifying the Dynamics of COVID-19 Burden and Impact of Interventions in Java, Indonesia

Cited by 4 publications

References 0 publications

Global and National Declines in Life Expectancy: An End‐of‐2021 Assessment

Global and National Declines in Life Expectancy: An End‐of‐2021 Assessment

Real-time estimation of the epidemic reproduction number: Scoping review of the applications and challenges

Telling People to Change Their Behaviour Through Implications: An Implicature Analysis on Covid-19 Public Service Announcements in Indonesia

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About