The global trade of non-native pet birds has increased in recent decades, and this has accelerated the introduction of invasive birds in the wild. This study employed ensemble species distribution modelling (eSDM) to assess potential habitat suitability and environmental predictor variables influencing the potential distribution of non-native pet bird species reported lost and sighted in South Africa. We used data and information on lost and found pet birds from previous studies to establish and describe scenarios of how pet birds may transition from captivity to the wild. Our study revealed that models fitted and performed well in predicting the suitability for African grey (Psittacus erithacus), Budgerigar (Melopsittacus undulatus), Cockatiel (Nymphicus hollandicus), Green-cheeked conure (Pyrrhura molinae), Monk parakeet (Myiopsitta monachus), and Rose-ringed parakeet (Psittacula krameri), with the mean weighted AUC and TSS values greater than 0.765. The predicted habitat suitability differed among species, with the suitability threshold indicating that between 61% and 87% of areas were predicted as suitable. Species with greater suitability included the African grey, Cockatiel, and Rose-ringed parakeet, which demonstrated significant overlap between their habitat suitability and reported lost cases. Human footprint, bioclimatic variables, and vegetation indices largely influenced predictive habitat suitability. The pathway scenario showed the key mechanisms driving the transition of pet birds from captivity to the wild, including the role of pet owners, animal rescues, adoption practices, and environmental suitability. Our study found that urban landscapes, which are heavily populated, are at high risk of potential invasion by pet birds. Thus, implementing a thorough surveillance survey is crucial for monitoring and evaluating the establishment potential of pet species not yet reported in the wild.
