Quantifying rock fall probabilities and their temporal distribution associated with weather seasonality

Macciotta, Renato; Hendry, Michael T.; Crudën, D. M.; Blais-Stevens, A; Edwards, Tom

doi:10.1007/s10346-017-0834-7

Cited by 33 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…The rockfall distribution in Germany, with the distinct winter maximum (Figure ), differs from the distributions which were observed by other studies (e.g. Douglas, ; Sandersen et al, ; Sass and Oberlechner, ; Macciotta et al, ). The comparison of these studies shows the usefulness of giving an overview of the characteristic seasonal occurrence of rockfalls in the particular regions, especially due to the different geomorphological and climatological conditions.…”

Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 76%

A national rockfall dataset as a tool for analysing the spatial and temporal rockfall occurrence in Germany

Rupp

Damm

2020

Earth Surf Processes Landf

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This study presents an evaluation of a comprehensive dataset with information on about 700 recorded rockfall events in Germany for the first time. The focus is on the analysis of monthly distributions of three rockfall clusters in German low mountain ranges and of three elevation classes to provide an overview of the characteristic seasonal occurrence of rockfalls in Germany. Each rockfall distribution is correlated with records of meteorological station clusters which are representative for the long‐term climate conditions of the particular rockfall cluster and elevation class, respectively. The stored parameters in the dataset (year of occurrence, rock volumes, slope angles, affected objects) are evaluated to complete the extensive and differentiated overview of rockfalls in Germany. The analyses of the distributions of the three rockfall clusters show a distinct event concentration in the winter months. Differences are apparent between the monthly distributions of the elevation classes in which clear peaks are partially visible. Freeze–thaw cycles are considered to be the major trigger of winter rockfalls in Germany. Overall, the presented results may serve as a basis for further studies in the German low mountain ranges. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 76%

A national rockfall dataset as a tool for analysing the spatial and temporal rockfall occurrence in Germany

Rupp

Damm

2020

Earth Surf Processes Landf

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“…For P B , the expressions propagation probability [15,30,31], transit or impact probability [29], reach probability [32], and travel probability [33] have been used. For P C , the expressions impact probability [22,34], passage probability [29], reach probability [35], occurrence probability [3], and rockfall probability [36] have been used. As passing through a point for a rock compartment needs to be released (or fail) and to propagate down to (or reach) this point, we suggest using the following expressions: failure probability or release probability for event A; propagation probability or reach probability for event B; and passage probability for event C. Note that the expressions probability of occurrence and onset probability are too general, because the occurrence or onset may refer to different events (failure, passage, impact).…”

Section: Localized Hazardmentioning

confidence: 99%

Definitions and Concepts for Quantitative Rockfall Hazard and Risk Analysis

et al. 2021

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There is an increasing need for quantitative rockfall hazard and risk assessment that requires a precise definition of the terms and concepts used for this particular type of landslide. This paper suggests using terms that appear to be the most logic and explicit as possible and describes methods to derive some of the main hazards and risk descriptors. The terms and concepts presented concern the rockfall process (failure, propagation, fragmentation, modelling) and the hazard and risk descriptors, distinguishing the cases of localized and diffuse hazards. For a localized hazard, the failure probability of the considered rock compartment in a given period of time has to be assessed, and the probability for a given element at risk to be impacted with a given energy must be derived combining the failure probability, the reach probability, and the exposure of the element. For a diffuse hazard that is characterized by a failure frequency, the number of rockfalls reaching the element at risk per unit of time and with a given energy (passage frequency) can be derived. This frequency is relevant for risk assessment when the element at risk can be damaged several times. If it is not replaced, the probability that it is impacted by at least one rockfall is more relevant.

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“…For PB, the expressions propagation probability [15,31,32], transit or impact probability [30], reach probability [33] and travel probability [34] have been used. For PC, the expressions impact probability [22,35] passage probability [30], reach probability [36], occurrence probability [3], rockfall probability [37] have been used. As reaching (or passing through) a point for a rock compartment needs to be released (or fail) and to propagate (or travel) down to this point, we suggest to use the following expressions: Failure probability or release probability for the event A; Propagation probability or travel probability for the event B; Reach or passage probability for the event C. Note that the expressions probability of occurrence and onset probability are too general because the occurrence or onset may refer to different events (failure, impact).…”

Section: Localized Hazardmentioning

confidence: 99%

Definitions and Concepts for Quantitative Rockfall Hazard and Risk Analysis

Hantz¹,

Corominas²,

Crosta³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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There is an increasing need for quantitative rockfall hazard and risk assessment that requires a precise definition of the terms and concepts used for this particular type of landslide. This paper suggests to use terms that appear to be the more logic and explicit as possible, and describes methods to derive some of the main hazard and risk descriptors. The terms and concepts presented concern the rockfall process (failure, propagation, fragmentation, modelling) and the hazard and risk descriptors, distinguishing the cases of localized hazards and diffused hazards. For a localized hazard, the failure probability of the considered rock compartment in a given period of time has to be assessed and the probability for a given element at risk to be impacted with a given energy must be derived combining the failure probability, the propagation probability and the exposure of the element. For a diffuse hazard that is characterized by a failure frequency, the number of rockfalls reaching the element at risk per unit of time and with a given energy (reach frequency) can be derived. However, when the element at risk is not replaced or repaired, the probability that it is impacted by at least one rockfall must be considered.

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Quantifying rock fall probabilities and their temporal distribution associated with weather seasonality

Cited by 33 publications

References 11 publications

A national rockfall dataset as a tool for analysing the spatial and temporal rockfall occurrence in Germany

A national rockfall dataset as a tool for analysing the spatial and temporal rockfall occurrence in Germany

Definitions and Concepts for Quantitative Rockfall Hazard and Risk Analysis

Definitions and Concepts for Quantitative Rockfall Hazard and Risk Analysis

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