Quantifying Florida Bay Habitat Suitability for Fishes and Invertebrates Under Climate Change Scenarios

Abstract

The Florida Bay ecosystem supports a number of economically important ecosystem services, including several recreational fisheries, which may be affected by changing salinity and temperature due to climate change. In this paper, we use a combination of physical models and habitat suitability index models to quantify the effects of potential climate change scenarios on a variety of juvenile fish and lobster species in Florida Bay. The climate scenarios include alterations in sea level, evaporation and precipitation rates, coastal runoff, and water temperature. We find that the changes in habitat suitability vary in both magnitude and direction across the scenarios and species, but are on average small. Only one of the seven species we investigate (Lagodon rhomboides, i.e., pinfish) sees a sizable decrease in optimal habitat under any of the scenarios. This suggests that the estuarine fauna of Florida Bay may not be as vulnerable to climate change as other components of the ecosystem, such as those in the marine/terrestrial ecotone. However, these models are relatively simplistic, looking only at single species effects of physical drivers without considering the many interspecific interactions that may play a key role in the adjustment of the ecosystem as a whole. More complex models that capture the mechanistic links between physics and biology, as well as the complex dynamics of the estuarine food web, may be necessary to further understand the potential effects of climate change on the Florida Bay ecosystem.

Host genetics and geography influence microbiome composition in the spongeIrcinia campana

“…For example, ocean warming in the Mediterranean triggered microbial imbalances in I. fasciculata, which have been implicated in disease and mass mortalities (Blanquer, Uriz, Cebrian, & Galand, 2016). In Florida Bay, I. campana populations have already suffered numerous mass mortality events (Butler et al, 1995;Stevely et al, 2010) due to cyanobacterial blooms caused by decades of ecosystem instability (Butler & Dolan, 2017;Butler et al, 2018;Fourqurean & Robblee, 1999;Kearney et al, 2015;Robblee et al, 1991). Microbiomes are potentially important in acclimation and resilience to climate change scenarios in marine organisms (Ribes et al, 2016;Webster & Reusch, 2017).…”

Using genetics to inform restoration and predict resilience in declining populations of a keystone marine sponge

“…Similarity in genetic diversity across all sampling sites implies that S. vesparium in Florida may still have sufficient genetic variation for resilience against some future stressors. In the Florida Keys, those include anthropogenic effects on water quality and global climate change (Wall et al 2012;Kearney et al 2015;Butler and Dolan 2017), as well as further cyanobacteria blooms. However, bottleneck signatures in some sites suggest that genetic diversity may have been previously lost due to unknown causes, and therefore caution should be exercised in management to prevent possible reductions in genetic variation.…”

Can meta‐analysis be used as a decision‐making tool for developing scenarios and causal chains in eco‐hydrological systems? Case study in Florida

“…The Everglades, located in South Florida, is one of the world's largest wetlands. The Everglades is an example of an estuary that has been substantially altered by humans (Kearney et al, ). El Niño Southern Oscillation also strongly influence the climate of Florida and agriculture (Cheng et al, ).…”

“…The Everglades, located in South Florida, is one of the world's largest wetlands. The Everglades is an example of an estuary that has been substantially altered by humans (Kearney et al, 2015).…”