Quantifying effects of climate change and farmers' information demand on wheat yield in India: a deep learning approach with regional clustering

Abstract

IntroductionWith increasing demand for food and changing environmental conditions, a better understanding of the factors impacting wheat yield is essential for ensuring food security and sustainable agriculture. By analyzing the effect of multiple factors on wheat yield, the presented research provides novel insights into the potential impacts of climate change on wheat production in India. In the present study, datasets consisting of countrywide environmental and agronomic factors and wheat yield were collected. In addition, the study also analyzes the effect of information demand of farmers on production.MethodologyThe study employs a regional analysis approach by dividing the country into five zonal clusters: Northern Hills, Central India, Indo-Gangetic Plains, North-Eastern India, and Peninsular India. Correlation and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) were performed to uncover the month-wise key factors affecting wheat yield in each zone. Furthermore, four Machine Learning/Deep Learning-based models, including XGBoost, Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP), Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), and 1-D Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), were developed to estimate wheat yield. This study estimated partial derivatives for all factors using Newton's Quotient Technique, a numerical method-based approach.ResultsThe analysis focused on applying this technique to the best-performing wheat yield estimation model, which was the GRU-based model (with RMSE and MAE of 0.60 t/ha and 0.46 t/ha, respectively).DiscussionIn the later sections of the article, multiple policy recommendations are communicated based on the extracted insights. The results of the presented research help inform decision-making regarding the development of strategies and policies to mitigate the impacts of climate change on wheat production in India.