Quantifying Earth system interactions for sustainable food production via expert elicitation

Chrysafi, Anna; Virkki, Vili; Jalava, Mika; Sandström, Vilma; Piipponen, Johannes; Porkka, Miina; Lade, Steven J.; Mere, Kelsey La; Wang‐Erlandsson, Lan; Scherer, Laura; Andersen, Lizzi; Bennett, Elena M.; Brauman, Kate A.; Cooper, Gregory S.; Palma, Adriana De; Döll, Petra; Downing, Andrea S.; DuBois, Timothy C.; Fetzer, Ingo; Fulton, Elizabeth A.; Gerten, Dieter; Jaafar, Hadi; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Jaramillo, Fernando; Jung, Martin; Kahiluoto, Helena; Lassaletta, Luis; Mackay, Anson W.; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel; Mekonnen, Mesfin; Nash, Kirsty L.; Pastor, Amandine; Ramankutty, Navin; Ridoutt, Bradley G.; Siebert, Stefan; Simmons, Benno I.; Staal, Arie; Sun, Zhongxiao; Tobian, Arne; Usubiaga‐Liaño, Arkaitz; Ent, Ruud J. van der; Soesbergen, Arnout van; Verburg, Peter H.; Wada, Yoshihide; Zipper, Samuel C.; Kummu, Matti

doi:10.1038/s41893-022-00940-6

Cited by 32 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 84 publications

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“…Although we only visually investigated broad patterns of crop production (Figure 2, Figure 4), ignoring other key constraints such as market access or potential crop suitability 15 , this might indicate that there exist opportunities to sustainably intensify and manage foodscapes better in a regional and global context 83 . Potentially NBS, such as restoration, agroforestry or better soil, watershed and nutrient management can effectively address inter-related challenges to help humanity stay within its planet boundaries 84,85 . Overall, the concept and our initial mapping of foodscape can contribute towards identifying opportunities for agri-economic interventions and sustainable intensification, especially in areas with inefficient current production or with considerable risk factors.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The spatial concentration of global food production in very few foodscape classes also results in considerable risks towards food security 86 as well as creating tensions with the achievement of other sustainable development goals such as clean water or life on land 84,87 . We also find that about ~40% of all foodscape classes are exposed to single or multiple pressures globally (Figure 5a), with particularly intensively cultivated foodscapes being more often affected by multiple rather than single pressures.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The finding that foodscapes classes with high soil erosion and pesticide inputs often co-occur (Figure 5), highlights the need to address possible interacting effects 84 , for example, increased risk of pesticide pollution in water bodies owing to runoff caused by soil erosion and unsustainable agricultural production 90 . Finding possible interventions for such interacting pressures might be one way to address multiple aligned pressures 82 , and maps of foodscapes could be considered as possible decision support tool to reveal homologous areas in which similar interventions and strategies could be applied.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A global clustering of terrestrial food production systems

Jung¹,

Boucher²,

Wood³

et al. 2022

Preprint

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The production of food is at the heart of global sustainability challenges, with unsustainable practices being a major driver of biodiversity loss, greenhouse gas emissions, water overextraction, and land degradation. The concept of foodscapes, defined as the characteristics of food production along biophysical and socio-economic gradients, could provide an entry point into navigating this nexus. Further, identifying broad homologues of possible foodscape classes would help to design possible interventions and leverage points for more sustainable agriculture. Here we provide a globally consistent depiction of the world’s foodscapes approximated through distinct classes. We integrate the best available global data on biophysical and socio-economic factors to identify the minimum set of emergent clusters that determine these homologues production systems and evaluate their characteristics. We also explore and highlight vulnerabilities, risks and values affecting these depictions of the world's foodscapes. Overall, we find that food production globally is highly concentrated, with few foodscape classes producing much of the World’s food. Worryingly, we also find that many foodscape classes, particularly intensively cultivated or irrigated foodscape classes, are under considerable climatic and degradation risks. Our work can serve as baseline for global-scale zoning and gap analyses, while also revealing opportunities and homologous areas for possible agricultural interventions.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A global clustering of terrestrial food production systems

Jung¹,

Boucher²,

Wood³

et al. 2022

Preprint

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“…Chrysafi et al. (2022) investigated the interactions of food production‐related PBs and found that the green‐water PB can exert a strong influence on other PBs, while the blue‐water PB is highly influenced by other PBs. Therefore, future research should pay more attentions to this issue.…”

Section: Future Outlookmentioning

confidence: 99%

Review of Quantitative Applications of the Concept of the Water Planetary Boundary at Different Spatial Scales

Han

Leng

2023

Water Resources Research

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With the advent of the Anthropocene (Lewis & Maslin, 2015), many critical Earth-system processes have been significantly impacted, thus placing the system at great risk of reaching a dangerous level (Steffen et al., 2018). The "planetary boundary" (PB) concept was proposed (Rockstrom et al., 2009a(Rockstrom et al., , 2009b to define a safe operating space for humanity without destabilizing critical planetary processes, with the Holocene baseline corresponding to the optimal planetary state (O'Neill et al., 2018). Specifically, nine PBs have been defined, and climate change and biodiversity integrity have been identified as two core PBs due to the significant impacts of these factors on the Earth system (Steffen et al., 2018). By emphasizing the urgency of taking appropriate actions to defend the Earth against the risks of crossing the "tipping point," PB research has had a considerable impact on global policy-making (Galaz et al., 2012).As an essential part of the PB framework, the water PB provides a global limitation to human manipulation of the water cycle (Rockstrom et al., 2009a). The initial determination of the water PB was made by Rockstrom et al. (2009a), who adopted a blue-water (i.e., water in aquifers, lakes, and dams) use magnitude of 4,000 (4,000-6,000) km 3 /yr as the water PB. A subsequent revision was made by Gerten et al. (2013), who proposed a blue-water use magnitude of 2,800 (1,100-4,500) km 3 /yr as the water PB. In the latest version of the PB framework (Steffen et al., 2015), proposed a two-level water PB, including a global-scale PB and a basin-scale PB. Recently, Gleeson, proposed a series of subboundaries to better examine the role of water-cycle modifications in Earth system resilience. Zipper et al. (2020) further explored how to integrate the water PB with water management from the local to global scales by harmonizing the quantification approaches of fair shares (top-down) and local safe operating spaces (bottom-up). In addition to the blue water-based PB, Wang-Erlandsson et al. (2022) attempted to quantify the water PB from the green water (i.e., terrestrial precipitation, evaporation, and soil moisture) perspective, and indicated a transgression of the green water PB.

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“…Root-zone soil moisture is now substantially modified by human activities, such as greenhouse gas emissions, deforestation, aerosol pollution, freshwater depletion, and their interactions (Chrysafi et al, 2022). These human modifications of root-zone soil moisture and the Earth system implications of its changes prompted the suggestion to include root-zone soil moisture in the planetary boundaries framework as the green water planetary boundary (Wang-Erlandsson et al, 2022).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Root zone soil moisture in over 25 % of global land permanently beyond pre-industrial variability as early as 2050

Lai

Wang‐Erlandsson

Virkki

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Abstract. Root-zone soil moisture is a key variable representing water cycle dynamics that strongly interacts with ecohydrological, atmospheric, and biogeochemical processes. Recently, it was proposed as the control variable for the green water planetary boundary, suggesting that widespread and considerable deviations from baseline variability now predispose destabilization of Earth System functions critical to an agriculture-based civilisation. However, the global extent and severity of root-zone soil moisture changes under future scenarios remains to be scrutinized. Here, we analyzed root-zone soil moisture departures from the pre-industrial climate variability for a multi-model ensemble of 14 Earth System Models (ESMs) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) in four climate scenarios as defined by the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP), SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5, between 2021 and 2100. The analyses were done for 43 ice-free climate reference regions used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).We defined ‘permanent departures’ when a region’s soil moisture exits the regional variability envelope of the pre-industrial climate and does not fall back into the range covered by the baseline envelope until 2100. Permanent dry departures (i.e. lower soil moisture than pre-industrial variability) were found to be most pronounced in Central America, southern Africa, the Mediterranean region, and most of South America, whereas permanent wet departures are most pronounced in southeastern South America, northern Africa, and southern Asia. In the Mediterranean region, permanent departure may have already happened according to some models. By 2100, there is permanent departure in the Mediterranean in 60 % of the ESMs in SSP1-2.6, the most mitigated situation, and 100 % in SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5, the medium-high and worst-case scenarios. North-Eastern Africa is projected to experience permanent departures in 50 % of the ESMs under SSP1-2.6, and 86 % under SSP5-8.5. The percentage of ice-free land area with departures increases in all SSP scenarios as time goes by.Wet departure are more widespread than dry departures throughout the studied timeframe, except in SSP1-2.6. In most regions, the severity of the departures increases with the severity of global warming. In 2050, permanent departures (ensemble median) occur in 10 % of global ice-free land areas in SSP1-2.6, and in 25 % in SSP3-7.0. By the end of the 21st century, the occurrence of permanent departures in SSP1-2.6 increases to 34 %, and in SSP3-7.0, 45 %. Our findings underscore the importance of mitigation to avoid further degrading the Earth System functions upheld by soil moisture.

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Quantifying Earth system interactions for sustainable food production via expert elicitation

Cited by 32 publications

References 84 publications

A global clustering of terrestrial food production systems

A global clustering of terrestrial food production systems

Review of Quantitative Applications of the Concept of the Water Planetary Boundary at Different Spatial Scales

Root zone soil moisture in over 25 % of global land permanently beyond pre-industrial variability as early as 2050

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