2021
DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2021.08.001
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Quantifying competitive advantages of mutant strains in a population involving importation and mass vaccination rollout

Abstract: The SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant, known as B.1.617.2 and first identified in India, is becoming a dominant strain in many countries due to its extreme infectiousness. Assessing and quantifying the transmissibility and competitive advantage of the Delta variant is of major significance for countries around the world so that appropriate measures to mitigate and even eliminate the epidemic can be introduced. Aiming at such problems, we proposed a method to model the invasion process of a novel strain and estimate the… Show more

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Cited by 24 publications
(22 citation statements)
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“…Some of reported studies were performed before detection of the Delta variant, which has a significantly higher transmission capacity than other strains and can be more easily spread by vaccinated individuals. In fact, this can explain the rebound of the virus in many countries, including the United Kingdom (UK), where the proportion of vaccinated individuals is high and some prevention and control measures are still in place [121].…”
Section: The Immunity and Virus Transmission After Vaccinationmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Some of reported studies were performed before detection of the Delta variant, which has a significantly higher transmission capacity than other strains and can be more easily spread by vaccinated individuals. In fact, this can explain the rebound of the virus in many countries, including the United Kingdom (UK), where the proportion of vaccinated individuals is high and some prevention and control measures are still in place [121].…”
Section: The Immunity and Virus Transmission After Vaccinationmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Although the spread of COVID-19 in China has been controlled to a certain extent, the risk of being infected has not subsided ( 3 ). Moreover, the B.1.617.2 (delta) variant has delivered a huge shock even to countries that have been mass vaccinated, because of its higher load and faster spread than SARS-CoV-2 ( 4 ). Therefore, the first local case in May ( 5 ), 1 month after the previous outbreak, has caused a considerable degree of panic (such as anxiety) in China.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…However, in the period July-August 2021 an increase of infections registered in Italy has been observed [35], probably due to the Delta variant, becoming the dominant variant in England by late May, due to partial immune escape [36]. In particular, a single dose vaccination is not sufficiently protective [37] and the Delta variant has a significantly higher transmission capacity than the Alpha variant [38].…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%