Quantifying climate feedbacks in polar regions

Goosse, Hugues; Kay, J. E.; Armour, Kyle C.; Bodas‐Salcedo, Alejandro; Chepfer, Hélène; Docquier, David; Jonko, Alexandra; Kushner, Paul J.; Lecomte, Olivier; Massonnet, François; Park, Hyo‐Seok; Pithan, Felix; Svensson, Gunilla; Vancoppenolle, Martin

doi:10.1038/s41467-018-04173-0

Cited by 357 publications

(402 citation statements)

References 117 publications

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“…The Moist EBM predicts amplified Arctic warming, in good agreement with CMIP5 models, when the CMIP5 meridional pattern of λ (x) is employed (Figs. 6a-c); diagnosing contributions to zonal-mean warming within the Moist EBM would lead to the same conclusions regarding the role of AHT changes in Arctic amplification as reported for CMIP5 models (Pithan and Mauritsen 2014;Goosse et al 2018). However, the Moist EBM also predicts amplified Arctic warming for meridionally-uniform λ (x) (Figs.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 55%

“…Only when polar warming becomes strongly amplified is the MSE gradient sufficiently reduced that poleward AHT decreases into polar regions, as seen in the in the northern hemisphere of CMIP5 models (sections 3b,c). This suggests that meridional AHT is a key driver of polar amplification, even while diagnostic warming contributions (Pithan and Mauritsen 2014;Goosse et al 2018), taken at face value, appear to suggest otherwise.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…3b), permitting a diagnosis of its contribution to zonal-mean warming by dividing by the Planck response (e.g., Crook et al 2011;Feldl and Roe 2013a;Pithan and Mauritsen 2014;Goosse et al 2018). In this view, the fact that poleward AHT into the Arctic changes little, or even decreases, under greenhouse-gas forcing in CMIP5 models implies that it plays little to no role in Arctic warming.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Meridional atmospheric heat transport constrained by energetics and mediated by large-scale diffusion

Armour¹,

Siler²,

Donohoe³

et al. 2018

Preprint

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Meridional atmospheric heat transport (AHT) has been investigated through three broad perspectives: a dynamic perspective, linking AHT to the poleward flux of moist static energy (MSE) by atmospheric motions; an energetic perspective, linking AHT to energy input to the atmosphere by top-of-atmosphere radiation and surface heat fluxes; and a diffusive perspective, representing AHT in terms down-gradient energy transport. It is shown here that the three perspectives provide complementary diagnostics of meridional AHT and its changes under greenhouse-gas forcing. When combined, the energetic and diffusive perspectives offer prognostic insights: anomalous AHT is constrained to satisfy the net energetic demands of radiative forcing, radiative feedbacks, and ocean heat uptake; in turn, the meridional pattern of warming must adjust to produce those AHT changes, and does so approximately according to diffusion of anomalous MSE. The relationship between temperature and MSE exerts strong constraints on the warming pattern, favoring polar amplification. These conclusions are supported by use of a diffusive moist energy balance model (EBM) that accurately predicts zonal-mean warming and AHT changes within comprehensive general circulation models (GCMs). A dry diffusive EBM predicts similar AHT changes in order to satisfy the same energetic constraints, but does so through tropically-amplified warming -at odds with the GCMs' polar-amplified warming pattern. The results suggest that polar-amplified warming is a near-inevitable consequence of a moist, diffusive atmosphere's response to greenhouse-gas forcing. In this view, atmospheric circulations must act to satisfy net AHT as constrained by energetics.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 55%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Meridional atmospheric heat transport constrained by energetics and mediated by large-scale diffusion

Armour¹,

Siler²,

Donohoe³

et al. 2018

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…On the other hand, different strengths of simulated Arctic feedbacks among models (Cronin et al, ; Goosse et al, ) also play a key role in determining the amount of forcings responsible for the rapid transition of Arctic sea ice state between perennial to seasonal. Our results indicate that the uncertainty of simulating this nonlinear behavior of sea ice may explain the diverse predictions of future Arctic Sea ice (Jahn et al, ; Stroeve et al, ; Stroeve et al, ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Contributions of aerosol‐cloud interactions to mid‐Piacenzian seasonally sea ice‐free Arctic Ocean

Feng

Otto‐Bliesner

et al. 2019

Geophysical Research Letters

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Forcings and feedbacks controlling the seasonally sea ice‐free Arctic Ocean during the mid‐Piacenzian Warm period (3.264–3.025 Ma, MPWP), a period when CO2 level, geography, and topography were similar to present day, remain unclear given that many complex Earth System Models with comparatively higher skills at simulating twentieth century Arctic sea ice tend to produce perennial Arctic sea ice for this period. We demonstrate that explicitly simulating aerosol‐cloud interactions and the exclusion of industrial pollutants from model forcing conditions is key to simulating seasonally sea ice‐free Arctic Ocean of MPWP. The absence of industrial pollutants leads to fewer and larger cloud droplets over the high‐latitude Northern Europe and North Pacific, which allows greater absorption of solar radiation at the surface during the early summer. This enhanced absorption triggers the seasonally runaway sea ice surface albedo feedback that gives rise to September sea ice‐free Arctic Ocean and strongly amplified northern high‐latitude surface warmth.

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“…The λ above can be separated into Planck feedback ( λ 0 ) and feedbacks ( λ x ) due to changes in the LR, surface albedo, WV, and clouds so that λ = λ 0 + ∑ λ x (e.g., Cai & Lu, ; Crook et al, ; Feldl et al, ; Goosse et al, ; Pithan & Mauritsen, ; Rose et al, ). The λ must be negative for a stable climate system.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Local Radiative Feedbacks Over the Arctic Based on Observed Short‐Term Climate Variations

Zhang

Wang

et al. 2018

Geophysical Research Letters

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We compare various radiative feedbacks over the Arctic (60–90°N) estimated from short‐term climate variations occurring in reanalysis, satellite, and global climate model data sets using the combined Kernel‐Gregory approach. The lapse rate and surface albedo feedbacks are positive, and their magnitudes are comparable. Relative to the tropics (30°S–30°N), the lapse rate feedback is the largest contributor to Arctic amplification among all feedbacks, followed by surface albedo feedback and Planck feedback deviation from its global mean. Both shortwave and longwave water vapor feedbacks are positive, leading to a significant positive net water vapor feedback over the Arctic. The net cloud feedback has large uncertainties including its sign, which strongly depends on the data used for all‐sky and clear‐sky radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere, the time periods considered, and the methods used to estimate the cloud feedback.

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Quantifying climate feedbacks in polar regions

Cited by 357 publications

References 117 publications

Meridional atmospheric heat transport constrained by energetics and mediated by large-scale diffusion

Meridional atmospheric heat transport constrained by energetics and mediated by large-scale diffusion

Contributions of aerosol‐cloud interactions to mid‐Piacenzian seasonally sea ice‐free Arctic Ocean

Local Radiative Feedbacks Over the Arctic Based on Observed Short‐Term Climate Variations

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