Quantifying climate change impacts on hydropower generation and implications on electric grid greenhouse gas emissions and operation

Tarroja, Brian; AghaKouchak, Amir; Samuelsen, Scott

doi:10.1016/j.energy.2016.05.131

Cited by 110 publications

(56 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…Furthermore, the authors conclude that GHG emissions may increase due to the substitution of reduced hydropower generation by thermal power plants burning fossil fuels. Tarroja et al show similar results for California [13].…”

Section: Climate Change and Water Availabilitysupporting

confidence: 71%

“…They find increased benefits for hydropower both due to increased generation and to a higher value placed on carbon-free generation. Tarroja et al [13] find increases in GHG emissions, fuel usage, and costs for the Californian electricity system using the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. These model results are due to decreased hydro generation and decreased efficiencies in load-following.…”

Section: Climate Change and Water Availabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In addition to these generation potential studies, there are several studies that also include the potential impact on the electricity market (i.e., for the EU [4,22], the U.S. [13,26,27], the Iberian Peninsula [28,29], Norway [30], and Austria and Germany [31]). Boehlert et al [26] combine a monthly water resources systems model with an electric sector planning model to analyze the impact of climate change on U.S. hydropower generation.…”

Section: Climate Change and Water Availabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These studies look at different spatial scales ranging from a global or continental perspective [5,[9][10][11][12]] to a country or local perspective [13][14][15][16][17][18][19] using different Global (GCM) and Regional Climate Models (RCM). The models are run with either the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES, [20]) or Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP, [21]) scenarios.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Impact of Climate Change on Swiss Hydropower

et al. 2018

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Abstract:Hydropower represents an important pillar of electricity systems in many countries. It not only plays an important role in mitigating climate change, but is also subject to climate-change impacts. In this paper, we use the Swiss electricity market model Swissmod to study the effects of changes in water availability due to climate change on Swiss hydropower. Swissmod is an electricity dispatch model with a plant-level representation of 96% of Swiss hydropower plants and their interrelations within cascade structures. Using this detailed model in combination with spatially disaggregated climate-change runoff projections for Switzerland, we show that climate change has ambiguous impacts on hydropower and on the overall electricity system. Electricity prices and overall system costs increase under dry conditions and decrease under average or wet conditions. While the change of seasonal patterns, with a shift to higher winter runoff, has positive impacts, the overall yearly inflow varies under hydrological conditions. While average and wet years yield an increase in inflows and revenues, dry years become drier, resulting in the opposite effect. Even though different in magnitude, the direction of impacts persists when applying the same changes in inflows to the 2050 electricity system.

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Section: Climate Change and Water Availabilitysupporting

confidence: 71%

Section: Climate Change and Water Availabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Climate Change and Water Availabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Impact of Climate Change on Swiss Hydropower

et al. 2018

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“…Tarroja [31] examined the effects of climate change on hydropower, particularly inflow to reservoirs, in California. The study assumed a 50% renewable generation fleet by 2050, and investigated how different hydro inflows would affect the dispatch of hydropower in balancing for solar and wind, and also how the changes in hydro dispatch would impact greenhouse gas emissions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydropower Impacts on Electrical System Production Costs in the Southwest United States

Bain

Acker

2018

Energies

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Abstract:The Colorado River is an important natural resource for the Southwestern United States. Predicted climate change impacts include increased temperature, decreased rainfall and increased probability of drought in this region. Given the large amount of hydropower on the Colorado River and its importance to the bulk electricity system, this purpose of this study was to quantify the value hydropower in operating the electrical system, and examined changes in hydropower value and electricity costs under different possible future drought conditions and regional generation scenarios. The goal was to better understand how these scenarios affect operating costs of the bulk electrical system, as well as the value of the hydropower produced, and proposed a method for doing so. The calculated value of the hydroelectric power was nearly double the mean locational marginal price in the study area, about $73 to $75 for most scenarios, demonstrating a high value of the hydropower. In general, it was found that reduced water availability increased operating costs, and increased the value of the hydropower. A calculated value factor showed that when less hydroelectric power is available, the hydropower is more valuable. Furthermore, the value factor showed that the value of hydro increases with the addition of solar or the retirement of thermal generating resources.

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Assessing Mountains as Natural Reservoirs With a Multimetric Framework

2018

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Anthropogenic climate change will continue to diminish the unique role that mountains perform as natural reservoirs and alter long‐held assumptions of water management. Climate models are important tools to help constrain uncertainty and understand processes that shape this decline. To ensure that climate model estimates provide stakeholder relevant information, the formulation of multimetric model evaluation frameworks informed by stakeholder interactions are critical. In this study, we present one such multimetric framework to evaluate snowpack data sets in the California Sierra Nevada: the snow water equivalent (SWE) triangle. SWE triangle metrics help to describe snowpack characteristics associated with total water volume buildup, peak water availability, and the rate of water release. This approach highlights compensating errors that would not be reflected in conventional large‐scale spatiotemporal analysis. To test our multimetric evaluation framework, we evaluate several publicly available snow products including the Sierra Nevada Snow Reanalysis, Livneh (L15), and the North American Land Data Assimilation System version 2 data sets. We then evaluate regional climate model skill within the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment. All data sets analyzed show variation across the various SWE triangle metrics, even within observationally constrained snow products. This spread was especially shown in spring season melt rates. Melt rate biases were prevalent throughout most regional climate model simulations, regardless of snow accumulation dynamics, and will need to be addressed to improve their utility for water stakeholders.

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Quantifying climate change impacts on hydropower generation and implications on electric grid greenhouse gas emissions and operation

Cited by 110 publications

References 34 publications

The Impact of Climate Change on Swiss Hydropower

The Impact of Climate Change on Swiss Hydropower

Hydropower Impacts on Electrical System Production Costs in the Southwest United States

Assessing Mountains as Natural Reservoirs With a Multimetric Framework

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