Quantification and Evaluation of Water Requirements of Oil Palm Cultivation for Different Climate Change Scenarios in the Central Pacific of Costa Rica Using APSIM

Abstract

Climate change is a variation in the normal behavior of the climate. These variations and their effects will be seen in the coming years, the most imminent being anomalous fluctuations in atmospheric temperature and precipitation. This scenario is counterproductive for agricultural production. This study evaluated the effect of climate change on oil palm production for conditions in the Central Pacific of Costa Rica, in three simulation scenarios: the baseline between the years 2000 and 2019, a first climate change scenario from 2040 to 2059 (CCS1), and a second one from 2080 to 2099 (CCS2), using the modeling framework APSIM, and the necessary water requirements were established as an adaptive measure for the crop with the irrigation module. A decrease in annual precipitation of 5.55% and 7.86% and an increase in the average temperature of 1.73 °C and 3.31 °C were identified, generating a decrease in production yields of 7.86% and 37.86%, concerning the Baseline, in CCS1 and CCS2, respectively. Irrigation made it possible to adapt the available water conditions in the soil to maintain the baseline yields of the oil palm crop for the proposed climate change scenarios.

Trend Analysis of Different Climate Parameters and Watering Requirements for Hazelnut in Central Italy Related to Climate Change

“…Significant trends have been shown for the stations located in the northern parts of the region and in the southwestern parts (Figure 1). The significant trend observed in evapotranspiration reflects the joint effects of climate parameters and plant coefficients and is in accordance with what is observed in recent literature [2,22,44].…”

“…In central Italy, although the amount of precipitation decreased from 1974 to 2021, no significant trends were observed, which is in agreement with observations by [2] in California for the period of 1895-2011 and by [22] in Turkey from 1984-2021. However, the effects of climate change may depend on the specific regional and temporal scales showing different trends of variation, contrary to other authors [6,22,43,44].…”

“…The increasing trends of the water requirements agree with those developed, though for the olive tree, using a soil water balance as well as climate data are required, according to Branquinho [21]. Several studies pointed out that in order to achieve the optimum yield and, at the same time, save water, it is necessary to accurately determine the water requirements of plants, especially during the summer months when it is essential to compensate the plant's water deficit with irrigation [21,22,44]. This information is crucial for hazelnut irrigation and crop planning in the different agroclimatic regions.…”

Predictions and Estimations in Agricultural Production under a Changing Climate

“…In the eighth article, the authors attempted a detailed assessment of the impact of current climate change on the production performance of the oil patch in Costa Rica in terms of available water resources [14]. The study proposed three scenarios of probable climate change, feasible in time periods: simulation in the base period 2000-2019; 2040-2059 (CCS1); and 2080-2099 (CCS2).…”