Qualitative species vulnerability: Model sensitivity to climate and spatial parameters

Griffis‐Kyle, Kerry L.; Mougey, Krista; Swain, Sharmistha; Drake, Joseph; Vanlandeghem, Matt

doi:10.1016/j.cliser.2021.100217

Cited by 2 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 32 publications

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“…In the short term, however, extreme disturbances and rapid environmental changes can still yield swift, adverse consequences even for generalist taxa [ 57 , 127 ]. As climates and environments change, surveillance of demographic trends and responses to stimuli by common species are worth monitoring by natural resource managers tasked with anticipating and mitigating threats to biodiversity [ 5 , 54 , 132 , 133 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling a hot, dry future: Substantial range reductions in suitable environment projected under climate change for a semiarid riparian predator guild

Blais,

Koprowski

2024

PLoS ONE

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An understanding of species-environmental relationships is invaluable for effective conservation and management under anthropogenic climate change, especially for biodiversity hotspots such as riparian habitats. Species distribution models (SDMs) assess present species-environmental relationships which can project potential suitable environments through space and time. An understanding of environmental factors associated with distributions can guide conservation management strategies under a changing climate. We generated 260 ensemble SDMs for five species of Thamnophis gartersnakes (n = 347)—an important riparian predator guild—in a semiarid and biogeographically diverse region under impact from climate change (Arizona, United States). We modeled present species-environmental relationships and projected changes to suitable environment under 12 future climate scenarios per species, including the most and least optimistic greenhouse gas emission pathways, through 2100. We found that Thamnophis likely advanced northward since the turn of the 20th century and overwinter temperature and seasonal precipitation best explained present distributions. Future ranges of suitable environment for Thamnophis are projected to decrease by ca. -37.1% on average. We found that species already threatened with extinction or those with warm trailing-edge populations likely face the greatest loss of suitable environment, including near or complete loss of suitable environment. Future climate scenarios suggest an upward advance of suitable environment around montane areas for some low to mid-elevation species, which may create pressures to ascend. The most suitable environmental areas projected here can be used to identify potential safe zones to prioritize conservation refuges, including applicable critical habitat designations. By bounding the climate pathway extremes to, we reduce SDM uncertainties and provide valuable information to help conservation practitioners mitigate climate-induced threats to species. Implementing informed conservation actions is paramount for sustaining biodiversity in important aridland riparian systems as the climate warms and dries.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling a hot, dry future: Substantial range reductions in suitable environment projected under climate change for a semiarid riparian predator guild

Blais,

Koprowski

2024

PLoS ONE

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Calculation of a Climate Change Vulnerability Index for Nakdong Watersheds Considering Non-Point Pollution Sources

Kim

Kwon

2022

Applied Sciences

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As a response to climate change, South Korea has established its third National Climate Change Adaptation Plan (2021–2025) alongside the local governments’ plans. In this study, proxy variables in 22 sub-watersheds of the Nakdong River, Korea were used to investigate climate exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity, and non-point pollution in sub-watersheds, a climate change vulnerability index (CCVI) was established, and the vulnerability of each sub-watershed in the Nakdong River was evaluated. Climate exposure was highest in the Nakdong Estuary sub-watershed (75.5–81.7) and lowest in the Geumhogang sub-watershed (21.1–28.1). Sensitivity was highest (55.7) in the Nakdong Miryang sub-watershed and lowest (19.6) in the Habcheon dam sub-watershed. Adaptive capacity and the resulting CCVI were highest in the Geumhogang sub-watershed (96.2 and 66.2–67.9, respectively) and lowest in the Wicheon sub-watershed (2.61 and 18.5–20.4, respectively), indicating low and high vulnerabilities to climate change, respectively. The study revealed that the high CCVI sensitivity was due to adaptive capacity. These findings can help establish rational climate change response plans for regional water resource management. To assess climate change vulnerability more accurately, regional bias can be prevented by considering various human factors, including resources, budget, and facilities.

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Qualitative species vulnerability: Model sensitivity to climate and spatial parameters

Cited by 2 publications

References 32 publications

Modeling a hot, dry future: Substantial range reductions in suitable environment projected under climate change for a semiarid riparian predator guild

Modeling a hot, dry future: Substantial range reductions in suitable environment projected under climate change for a semiarid riparian predator guild

Calculation of a Climate Change Vulnerability Index for Nakdong Watersheds Considering Non-Point Pollution Sources

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