Punctuated equilibrium and the dynamics of political participation: the case of letter writing

Abstract

While research has shown that policy outputs are punctuated, there is a paucity of research about the punctuation of public opinion and political participation. Policymakers rely on political participation to understand public opinion, so it is important to understand the patterns and flows of political participation, to help understanding democratic responsiveness, and how policy outputs behave. I advance punctuated equilibrium theory by applying it to individuals' decision to participate. I argue that bounded rationality and disproportionate information processing, will result in a punctuated equilibrium pattern. Using innovative new datasets on the volume and topic of letters to the Australian Prime Minister and American President, I find consistent evidence of punctuations, using weekly, fortnightly, and annual data, across both Australia and the USA. These results extend punctuated equilibrium further up the policy process chain than has previously been done, supporting its claim to be a full theory of government information processing.

Measuring the stasis: Punctuated equilibrium theory and partisan polarization

“…Comparative research on PET indicates that government structures have a considerable impact on governing and responsiveness to public opinion. Federalist systems, particularly those that allow policymakers to be somewhat electorally insulated from the whims of the public, tend to be less responsive to public opinion (Fagan et al., 2017; Wlezien & Soroka, 2012), even while the public's decision to participate is itself characterized by PET dynamics (Casey, 2023). Federalist systems also tend to have more friction built in and are less able to adapt to rapid changes in the environment (Fagan, 2022; Soroka & Wlezien, 2004).…”