Pumping Optimization Under Uncertainty in an Island Freshwater Lens Using a Sharp‐Interface Seawater Intrusion Model

Coulon, Cécile; Lemieux, Jean‐Michel; Pryet, Alexandre; Bayer, Peter; Young, Nathan L.; Molson, John

doi:10.1029/2021wr031793

Cited by 11 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…Deterministic parameter estimation and SLP, FOSM-based OUU were previously implemented on Grande Entrée Island to 85 determine maximum pumping rates avoiding well salinization, considering parameter and observation uncertainty and current climate conditions (Coulon et al, 2021;Coulon et al, 2022). This study details the implementation of the ensemble-based approach for history matching and multi-objective (MO) OUU, and the incorporation of climate uncertainty (specifically, sea level and recharge uncertainty) into the pumping optimization.…”

Section: Study Area 80mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…1), along with Quaternary sand dunes and glacial sediments (mostly fine sand). A spatially distributed recharge representative of the period 1989-2019 was generated for the Magdalen Islands archipelago by Lemieux et al (2022), using a SWB2 groundwater recharge model (Soil-Water-Balance-2, Westenbroek et al, 2018). A spatial average of 524 mm/year was determined for the whole archipelago, and of 559 mm/year for Grande-Entrée Island specifically.…”

Section: Study Area 80mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Between 2014 and 2020, the mean water demand in the network was approximately 93 m 3 /day. A median water demand projection of 94 m 3 /day 100 was estimated for 2050, with a range of possible values between 76 and 115 m 3 /day, showing no significant evolution in water demand but uncertainty in the projections (Lemieux et al, 2022).…”

Section: Study Area 80mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…1). Municipal groundwater pumping was simulated using the MNW2 package (Konikow et al, 2009), to assimilate water levels (Coulon et al, 2021) and to calculate optimization constraints (Coulon et al, 2022). While domestic pumping was also simulated (Coulon et al, 2021), in the rest of the paper the term "pumping wells" will refer to the municipal pumping wells only.…”

Section: Numerical Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Furthermore, conducting data assimilation prior to OUU is essential, since it allows to update parameter uncertainty estimates with observation uncertainty. In Coulon et al (2022), the real-world OUU approach used a sharp-interface model, sequential linear programming (SLP), and first-order-second-moment (FOSM) uncertainty analysis 50 accounting for both parameter and observation uncertainty (including 60 parameters and 162 observations). It was preceded by parameter estimation (Coulon et al, 2021), conducted using the widely used Gauss-Levenberg-Marquardt (GLM) algorithm.…”

Section: Introduction 30mentioning

confidence: 99%

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An ensemble-based approach for pumping optimization in an island aquifer considering parameter, observation and climate uncertainty

Coulon

White²,

Pryet

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Abstract. In coastal zones, a major objective of groundwater management is often to determine sustainable pumping rates avoiding well salinization. Understanding how model and climate uncertainties affect optimal management solutions is essential to provide groundwater managers information about salinization risk, and is facilitated by the use of optimization under uncertainty (OUU) methods. However, guidelines are missing for the widespread implementation of OUU in real-world coastal aquifers, and for the incorporation of climate uncertainty into OUU approaches. An ensemble-based OUU approach was developed, considering parameter, observation and climate uncertainty, and was implemented in a real-world island aquifer in the Magdalen Islands (Quebec, Canada). A sharp-interface seawater intrusion model was developed using MODFLOW-SWI2 and a prior parameter ensemble was generated, containing multiple equally plausible realizations. Ensemble-based history matching was conducted using an iterative ensemble smoother and yielded a posterior parameter ensemble conveying both parameter and observation uncertainty. 2050 sea level and recharge ensembles were generated and incorporated to generate a predictive parameter ensemble conveying parameter, observation and climate uncertainty. Multi-objective OUU was then conducted, aiming to both maximize pumping rates and minimize probability of well salinization. As a result, the optimal tradeoff between pumping and probability of salinization was quantified, considering parameter, historical observation and future climate uncertainty simultaneously. The multi-objective, ensemble-based OUU led to optimal pumping rates that were very different from a previous deterministic OUU, and close to the current and projected water demand for risk-averse stances. Incorporating climate uncertainty in the OUU was also critical since it reduced the maximum allowable pumping rates for users with a risk-averse stance. The workflow used tools adapted to very high-dimensional, nonlinear models and optimization problems, to facilitate its implementation in a wide range of real-world settings.

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Section: Study Area 80mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Study Area 80mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Study Area 80mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Numerical Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introduction 30mentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

An ensemble-based approach for pumping optimization in an island aquifer considering parameter, observation and climate uncertainty

Coulon

White²,

Pryet

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Analysis of seawater intrusion triggered under different pumping well layout schemes based on a numerical model

Huang,

Shu,

et al. 2024

Hydrological Processes

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Seawater intrusion (SWI) is a consequence of communication between the ocean and inland groundwater entailed by overexploitation and has been a global issue harming production, life and ecology in coastal regions. This paper established a numerical model to identify SWI features in a wider space under different pumping‐well layouts based on the number of wells (N), distance between the coastline and wells (Dcw), and distance between wells (Dww) and further researched the influence of the location of the screen (Ls) and calculated S as an index inferring the SWI degree. An evaluation index (EI) was proposed considering two contradictory parameters: the corresponding total critical pumping rate (Qc) indicated the critical situation in which saltwater was almost pumped, played a good role as the resource function, and S referred the negative environmental impact. Sensitivity analysis was performed to explore the relationship between the evaluation indexes and the parameters of pumping well layouts. The results revealed how seawater intruded inland groundwater under different pumping well layouts and the anthropogenic impact factors influencing the SWI process. Sensitivity analysis verified that Dcw was the key factor in optimizing pumping well layouts to maximize the quantity of groundwater resources and minimize the environmental damage of SWI. Research on Ls revealed that a higher location of the screen of the well could effectively abate SWI. This research fully explained SWI characteristics under different pumping well layouts and proposed the key factors during coastal groundwater exploitation work, which enhanced the understanding of SWI and contributed to the arrangement of real‐world water pumping activities in coastal regions.

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An adaptive multi-fidelity optimization framework based on co-Kriging surrogate models and stochastic sampling with application to coastal aquifer management

Christelis,

Kopsiaftis,

Regis

et al. 2023

Advances in Water Resources

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Pumping Optimization Under Uncertainty in an Island Freshwater Lens Using a Sharp‐Interface Seawater Intrusion Model

Cited by 11 publications

References 46 publications

An ensemble-based approach for pumping optimization in an island aquifer considering parameter, observation and climate uncertainty

An ensemble-based approach for pumping optimization in an island aquifer considering parameter, observation and climate uncertainty

Analysis of seawater intrusion triggered under different pumping well layout schemes based on a numerical model

An adaptive multi-fidelity optimization framework based on co-Kriging surrogate models and stochastic sampling with application to coastal aquifer management

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