Quantifying
sustainable nitrogen (N) management at the national
scale is critical for developing targeted policies and strategies
to simultaneously achieve food security and groundwater protection.
In this study, we report county-scale optimization scenarios for Chinese
maize production and evaluate their outcomes for safeguarding food
supply and groundwater safety. First, we performed random forest regression
modeling to simulate in situ NO3
– leaching based on a meta-analysis that integrates climate, soil,
water, and N balance parameters. The NO3
– leaching was then mapped for 1406 counties based on data compiled
from 2.89 million farmer surveys. Average NO3
– leaching during the maize growth season was estimated to be 27.6
kg N ha–1, and 56% of counties had groundwater whose
nitrate concentrations exceeded drinking water safety levels during
2005–2014. The top 5% farmers in each county produced not only
more grain but also greater NO3
– leaching.
Scenario analysis of potential management changes found that when
these top producers combined optimal N management practices, national
N use in Chinese maize system was reduced by 25%, from 9.1 to 6.9
Mt, while maize production increased by 6.1%. Modeled NO3
– leaching was 0.58 Mt, which was 31% lower than
groundwater safety levels and 53% lower than the current leaching
amount. This study provides evidence that integrated crop and N management
practices implemented at the county level safeguard both maize crop
food security and enhance environment sustainability.