Publicity of initial decisions and the risky shift phenomenon

Bell, Paul; Jamieson, Bruce

doi:10.1016/0022-1031(70)90067-3

Cited by 24 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…Averaging across problems, he computed for each subject an average risk and an average confidence score and found the two unrelated. Similar tests were conducted later by Teger and Pruitt (1967) and by Bell and Jamieson (1970) with the same negative results. Subjects' average riskiness was found to be uncorrelated with their average confidence.…”

supporting

confidence: 68%

“…To demonstrate that, if analyzed in the same way, our data could provide comparable results to those of Teger and Pruitt (1967) and Bell and Jamieson (1970), we computed for each subject a mean risk score and a mean confidence score averaging across the twelve problems. The Pearson correlation between the confidence and risk levels of the 42 Ss was r = .lo.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The relationship between riskiness and confidence in choice dilemma decisions

Stroebe

Fraser

1971

Euro J Social Psych

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The relationship between riskiness of decisions and confidence in decisions was examined using Choice Dilemma items. Graphs o n e of the best known and most frequently replicated findings of social psychology for nearly a decade has been that group discussion of the Wallach and Kogan (1959) Choice Dilemma problems induces group members to shift from their initial positions to positions of greater riskiness. Less well-known has been the finding of a consistent group induced 'cautious shift' on two of the 12 Choice Dilemma problems, and on certain items devised by subsequent investigators (e.g. NordhGy, 1962;Stoner, 1968). A closer inspection of subjects' responses to those 'cautious' items indicates that the items differ not only in the effects of group discussions. Subjects' initial decisions on such items are also generally less risky than initial decisions on the other 10 items of the Kogan and Wallach Choice Dilemma questionnaire.The finding that initial decisions on 'cautious' items are less risky than initial decisions on 'risky' items fits very nicely with recent findings by Moscovici and Zavalloni (1969) and Doise (1969). Moscovici and his colleagues measured their subjects' agreement or disagreement with statements of attitudes on several issues.

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supporting

confidence: 68%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The relationship between riskiness and confidence in choice dilemma decisions

Stroebe

Fraser

1971

Euro J Social Psych

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“…Jean & Percival, 1974). Likewise, listening to a group discussion generally elicits less shift than actual participation (e.g., Bell & Jamieson, 1970;Lamm, 1967;St. Jean, 1970).…”

Section: Informational Influencementioning

confidence: 99%

The group polarization phenomenon.

Myers

Lamm²

1976

Psychological Bulletin

894

501

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Experiments exploring the effects of group discussion on attitudes, jury decisions, ethical decisions, judgments, person perceptions, negotiations, and risk taking (other than the choice-dilemmas task) are generally consistent with a "group polarization" hypothesis, derived from the risky-shift literature. Recent attempts to explain the phenomenon fall mostly into one of three theoretical approaches: (a) group decision rules, especially majority rule (which is contradicted by available data), (b) interpersonal comparisons (for which there is mixed support), and (c) informational influence (for which there is strong support). A conceptual scheme is presented which integrates the latter two viewpoints and suggests how attitudes develop in a social context.

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“…An information theorist might be tempted to explain away this "half effect" because the instructions appear to have contained a demand for change (Murdoch et al, 1970) and because the three rounds of public display of decisions may have motivated some renewed scrutiny and "internal discussion" of relevant arguments. Experiments which have provided the minimal sufficient conditions for a social comparison effect-the simple sharing of initial decisions-have produced shift less reliably with this manipulation (Bell and Jamieson, 1970;Murdoch et al, 1970;Myers and Bishop, 1971;St. Jean, 1970;Stokes, 1971).…”

Section: University Of Coloradomentioning

confidence: 99%