Public policy-making and risk profiles: Scandinavian centre-right governments after the turn of the millennium

Abstract

Recent theoretical advances in the welfare state literature have outlined the differences between labour market- and life course-related schemes as centre-right parties have difficulties in enacting retrenchment on life course-related schemes because these concern every voter. In contrast, the textbook risk profile of centre-right parties’ electorates allows them to cutback on labour market-related schemes as these parties get negligible support from workers and low-income voters. Conducting a comparative case study of recent Danish and Swedish centre-right governments, this article analyses the stylized assumptions on the party level by comparing two similar centre-right governments, which differed in their voter coalitions’ risk profile. I first argue that centre-right governments are generally constrained by the popular entrenchment of the universal welfare state when it comes to life course-related welfare schemes. Second, I argue that the leeway on labour market-related schemes is contingent on the actual risk profile of the centre-right’s electorate, and thereby move beyond the stylized assumptions from recent literature. In this respect, the Danish centre-right did, in contrast to its Swedish counterpart, gain power with an unusual high support among working-class voters which constrained its latitude on labour market-related schemes. I find that the Danish centre-right governments after 2001 acted with bound hands thanks to its high working-class backing, and refrained from outright cutbacks on both labour market- and life course-related schemes until 2010 except for labour market outsiders. In contrast, the Swedish centre-right had a much lower working-class backing and therefore engaged in some outright cutbacks of labour market-related schemes such as unemployment benefits directly after taking office 2006. The centre-right’s actual voter coalition’s risk profile is thus an important determinant for its public policies and its leeway for policy-seeking.

Multiple routes to youth well-being: a qualitative comparative analysis of buffers to the negative consequences of unemployment

“…Moreover, results showed that the situation has turned out to be much more diverse than suggested by Gallie and Paugam (2000). Nordic countries in particular are much more diverse than expected, especially in terms of labour market-policy-related solutions, an aspect that is probably partly explained by recent retrenchment policies such as cuts in unemployment benefits (Arndt, 2017). Furthermore, the difference between Gallie and Paugam's (2000) universalistic and subprotective approaches is less clear, and even in Southern European countries, the importance of generous PLMP in addition to the extended family model (labelled extended family support in the present analysis) has been revealed.…”