Public policy and future mineral supplies

Tilton, John E.; Crowson, Phillip; DeYoung, John H.; Eggert, Roderick G.; Ericsson, Magnus; Guzmán, Juan Ignacio; Humphreys, David; Lagos, Gustavo; Maxwell, Philip; Radetzki, Marian; Singer, Donald A.; Wellmer, Friedrich‐Wilhelm

doi:10.1016/j.resourpol.2018.01.006

Cited by 65 publications

(60 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…For over 100 years, mineral commodity prices in real terms have not increased (Tilton et al, 2018). For this reason, mining companies are under considerable pressure to reduce the costs of their operations.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Examining this rule, we see accelerating consumption, mainly due to the rapid increase of consumption in China since the turn of the millennium. Although there are no indications that we are facing a disturbance of the dynamic balance between reserves and consumption in the near or medium future (Tilton et al, 2018, Wellmer 2008, the rising consumption calls for measures to increase raw material efficiency as much as possible. Good examples are the efforts within the European Union to improve the circular economy, i.e., to increase the share of secondary materials (EC 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

A quick estimation of the economics of exploration projects - rules of thumb for mine capacity revisited - the input for estimating capital and operating costs.

Wellmer¹,

Drobe²

2019

BGM

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A quick estimation of the economics of exploration projects - rules of thumb for mine capacity revisited - the input for estimating capital and operating costs.

Wellmer¹,

Drobe²

2019

BGM

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show abstract

“…Similar questions dealing with the threat of physical depletion and the availability of resources for the future have been recurrently addressed in many studies (e.g. Govett and Govett, 1972;Skinner, 1976;Cook, 1976;Tilton, 2003Tilton, , 2006Yaksic and Tilton, 2009;Rosenau-Tornow et al, 2009;Gunn, 2011;Shodde, 2010aShodde, , 2017cCrowson, 2011;Prior et al, 2012;Henckens et al, 2009;Sverdrup and Ragnasdóttir, 2014;Calvo et al, 2016;Northey et al, 2018;Tilton et al, 2018). However, despite the simple and convincing logic behind the "fixed stock paradigm" (strongly influenced by the Malthusian perspective), the main causes that determine mineral production are related to externalities and other factors directly or indirectly involved in the "opportunity cost paradigm" .…”

Section: Long-term Availability Of Mineral Resourcesmentioning

confidence: 86%

“…However, there are few long-standing sectors that remain as critical to the future development of society as the mining industry, which increasingly depends on the stability of long-term policies (e.g. Tilton et al, 2018) and intensive knowledge to minimize the high-risk and the intensive capital that it needs to run. In this context, what are the priority issues and fields of action that will make the most difference and who will drive the change process?…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Challenges and opportunities for a successful mining industry in the future.

Mateus¹,

Martins²

2019

BGM

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Modern models of sustainable economic growth are metal-intensive and will not be successful in the future unless a continuous supply of mineral-derived products is ensured. Despite this being logical, there is still a significant reluctance regarding mineral exploration and mining activities, often reflected in: (i) unfavourable public opinions; and (ii) absence of political measures or continuity of agendas that actually appreciate the way minerals are produced and the players directly or indirectly involved in this production. To succeed, the mining industry will have to (re)define its strategy and find innovative approaches to old problems and clearly demonstrate that mineral products can be efficiently delivered to support global development and assist suitable paths to welfare and quality of life, thus also providing real value to all concerned. In this study we give a concise review of the main challenges posed to the mining industry, and also indicate the most relevant opportunities and advance some proposals to constructively face the identified weaknesses and threats. The fundamental outcome is that the long-term balance between supply and demand of mineral products requires concerted actions on different fronts aiming: (i) the safeguarding of known resources; (ii) high-quality (scientifically and technologically driven) exploration surveys; (iii) improvements in mining and mineral transformation/ beneficiation; (iv) advances in consistent combinations of primary and secondary sources of raw materials, along with higher concerns on their judicious use; (v) effective and stable mining policies; and (vi) new insights on the role played by the mining industry through fruitful dialogues with society in general.

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“…On the demand side, consumers will reduce material intensity or develop and use alternative materials by substitution. On the supply side, higher prices encourage the expansion of existing sources of primary supply, the finding and developing of new primary resources, as well as increasing recycling and secondary production (Tilton et al 2018). The combination of these dynamics keeps the so-called feedback control cycle of mineral supply in motion and brings back to balance demand and supply (Wellmer and Dalheimer 2012;Wellmer and Hagelüken 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Volatility drivers on the metal market and exposure of producing countries

Renner

Wellmer

2019

Miner Econ

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The paper focuses on minor metals and coupled elements and aspires to understand individual incidents of imbalance on the mineral markets during the last 100 years and gain insight into the acting dynamics-those dynamics are commodity-specific but remain largely unchanged in their nature to date-and to identify the factors in play. The conclusions allow for a critical analysis of the widespread security-of-supply narrative of industrialized countries. They point at a market that is mostly a buyers' market, in which prices and their volatility are largely dictated by shifting demand patterns and much less by supply constraints. Neither high country concentration nor poor governance seem to have a substantial or lasting impact on market balance. Short-term market imbalances are generally neutralized by a dynamic reaction on the demand side via substitution, efficiency gains or technological change. The paper also assesses the impact of those quickly shifting demand patterns and the related price volatilities on producing countries. It shows how mineral price volatilities can expose developing countries' economies to significant economic risk, if their economy is heavily dependent on mineral production. Two cases that illustrate country exposure are explored in detail-the saltpeter crisis in Chile and the tin crisis in Bolivia. Both led to state bankruptcy. The paper concludes with an attempt to quantify economic exposure of producing countries to price volatilities of specific metals and suggests policies that adapt to the characteristic challenges of highly volatile demand.

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Public policy and future mineral supplies

Cited by 65 publications

References 13 publications

A quick estimation of the economics of exploration projects - rules of thumb for mine capacity revisited - the input for estimating capital and operating costs.

A quick estimation of the economics of exploration projects - rules of thumb for mine capacity revisited - the input for estimating capital and operating costs.

Challenges and opportunities for a successful mining industry in the future.

Volatility drivers on the metal market and exposure of producing countries

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