Public perceptions of non-adherence to COVID-19 measures by self and others in the United Kingdom

Williams, Simon; Armitage, Christopher J.; Tampe, Tova; Dienes, Kimberly

doi:10.1101/2020.11.17.20233486

Cited by 26 publications

(35 citation statements)

References 32 publications

(42 reference statements)

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“…Self-reported compliance with many of the social contact rules implemented to prevent virus spread most of the time has been fairly good, but not perfect in the UK (Bellato, 2020; Office for National Statistics 2020). However, there is evidence of widespread confusion about social distancing regulations and when a SARS-CoV-2 test is appropriate, impacting on people’s ability to comply with them (Office for National Statistics 2020; Williams et al 2020; Smith et al 2020). No formal set of guidelines and restrictions will be effective unless the general public understand and support the restrictions and control strategy.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The effectiveness of the three-tier system of local restrictions for control of COVID-19

Hunter

Brainard

Grant

2020

Preprint

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Despite it being over 10 months since COVID-19 was first reported to the world and it having caused over 1.3 million deaths it is still uncertain how the virus can be controlled whilst minimising the negative impacts on society and the economy. On the 14th October, England introduced a three-tier system of regional restrictions in an attempt to control the epidemic. This lasted until the 5th November when a new national lockdown was imposed. Tier 1 was the least and Tier 3 the most restrictive tiers. We used publicly available data of daily cases by local authority (local government areas) and estimated the reproductive rate (R value) of the epidemic over the previous 14 days at various time points after the imposition of the tier system or where local authorities were moved into higher tiers at time points after reallocation. At day 0 there vas very little difference in the R value between authorities in the different groups but by day 14 the R value in Tier 3 authorities had fallen to about 0.9, in Tier 2 to about 1.0 and in Tier 1 the R value was about 1.5. The restrictions in Tier 1 had little impact on transmission and allowed exponential growth in the large majority of authorities. By contrast the epidemic was declining in most Tier 3 authorities. In Tier 2, exponential growth was being seen in about half of authorities but declining in half. We concluded that the existing three tier system would have been sufficient to control the epidemic if all authorities had been moved out of Tier 1 into tier 2 and there had been more rapid identification and transfer of those authorities where the epidemic was increasing out of Tier 2 into Tier 3. A more restrictive tier than Tier 3 may be needed but only by a small number of authorities.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The effectiveness of the three-tier system of local restrictions for control of COVID-19

Hunter

Brainard

Grant

2020

Preprint

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“…Although social distancing and self-isolation behavior during lockdown can be crudely defined as being ‘adherent’ or ‘not-adherent’, it is likely that there is a more nuanced scale of adherence. 5 Attempts have been made to challenge the view that adherence should be considered a dichotomy. Fancourt et al 6 use the terms ‘complete’ and ‘majority’ adherence to compare those who follow all the guidance all the time with those who follow some of the guidance, or for some of the time.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Fancourt et al 6 use the terms ‘complete’ and ‘majority’ adherence to compare those who follow all the guidance all the time with those who follow some of the guidance, or for some of the time. Williams et al 5 refer to ‘overt rule breaking’ and ‘subjective rule interpretation’ to differentiate between those who were deliberately breaking the rules, and those who are interpreting inconsistent or constantly changing guidance to suit their needs. However, these terms do not capture the complexities underpinning decisions to adhere to the guidance, and the risk that this may bring.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…People may be acting conscientiously, engaging only in activities in which they are unlikely to come into contact with anyone, attempting to minimize the risk of transmitting or catching the virus. 5 Alternatively, people may be leaving their home out of necessity, in order to buy food or medicine, or to provide care for a vulnerable person. It is still unclear how the public are making decisions about what they should and should not do, what they actually are doing, and how safe this is.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Understanding patterns of adherence to COVID-19 mitigation measures: a qualitative interview study

Denford

Morton

Lambert

et al. 2021

Journal of Public Health

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Background Evidence highlights the disproportionate impact of measures that have been introduced to reduce the spread of coronavirus on individuals from Black, Asian and minority ethnic (BAME) communities, and among those on a low income. An understanding of barriers to adherence in these populations is needed. In this qualitative study, we examined the patterns of adherence to mitigation measures and reasons underpinning these behaviors. Methods Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 20 participants from BAME and low-income White backgrounds. The topic guide was designed to explore how individuals are adhering to social distancing and self-isolation during the pandemic and to explore the reasons underpinning this behavior. Results We identified three categories of adherence to lockdown measures: (i) caution-motivated super-adherence (ii) risk-adapted partial-adherence and (iii) necessity-driven partial-adherence. Decisions about adherence considered potential for exposure to the virus, ability to reduce risk through use of protective measures and perceived importance of/need for the behavior. Conclusions This research highlights a need for a more nuanced understanding of adherence to lockdown measures. Provision of practical and financial support could reduce the number of people who have to engage in necessity-driven partial-adherence. More evidence is required on population level risks of people adopting risk-adapted partial-adherence.

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“…Consequently, the lockdown was successful in reducing the estimated effective reprodcution number ( R eff ) in England by 75% from 2.6 to 0.61 (Birrell et al 2020). The effects of the second national lockdown and subsequent regional restrictions are not yet known; however, temporarily lifting some of the restrictions in late December 2020 has been discussed given the “desire to socialise over Christmas” (Williams et al 2020). For instance, the UK planned to allow up to three households to stay together and form an exclusive “Christmas bubble” ((Public Health England 2020)).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Time use and social mixing during and around festive periods: Potential changes in the age distribution of COVID-19 cases from increased intergenerational interactions

Leeuwen

Sandmann

Eggo

et al. 2020

Preprint

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RationaleAmid the ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in which many countries have adopted physical distancing measures, tiered restrictions, and episodic “lockdowns,” the impact of potentially increased social mixing during festive holidays on the age distribution of new COVID-19 cases remains unclear.ObjectiveWe aimed to gain insights into possible changes in the age distribution of COVID-19 cases in the UK after temporarily increased intergenerational interactions in late December 2020.MethodWe modelled changes in time use and social mixing based on age-stratified contact rates using historical nationally-representative surveys and up-to-date Google mobility data from four weeks before and after the festive period. We explored changes in the effective reproduction number and the age distribution of cases, in four scenarios: (1) “normal”: time use and contact patterns as observed historically, (2) “pre-lockdown”: patterns as seen before the lockdown in November 2020, (3) “lockdown”: patterns restricted as in November 2020, and (4) “festive break”: similar to 3 but with social visits over the holiday period as in 1.ResultsAcross ages, the estimated Reff decreases during the festive break in scenarios 1-3 and returns to pre-holiday levels in scenarios 2-3, while remaining relatively stable in scenario 4. Relative incidence is likely to decrease in children aged 0-15 but increase in other ages. Changes in age distribution were large during the holidays, and are likely to start before the holidays for individuals aged 16-24 years in scenarios 1-3.ConclusionsOur modelling findings suggest that increased contacts during the festive period may shift the age distribution of COVID-19 cases from children towards adults. Given that COVID-19-related hospitalisations and deaths rise by age, more intergenerational mixing risks an increased burden in the period following the holidays.HighlightsHome visits are associated with increased intergenerational mixing.The effective reproduction number is likely to remain stable or even reduce slightly due to a reduction in contacts at work and school.Relative incidence is likely to become lower in children, but higher in theolder (more vulnerable) age groups around the holiday period, which could lead to increased health care burden.

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Public perceptions of non-adherence to COVID-19 measures by self and others in the United Kingdom

Cited by 26 publications

References 32 publications

The effectiveness of the three-tier system of local restrictions for control of COVID-19

The effectiveness of the three-tier system of local restrictions for control of COVID-19

Understanding patterns of adherence to COVID-19 mitigation measures: a qualitative interview study

Time use and social mixing during and around festive periods: Potential changes in the age distribution of COVID-19 cases from increased intergenerational interactions

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