Public Opinion and Policymaking in the States: The Case of Post‐Roe Abortion Policy

Abstract

Whether public opinion should be expected to play a role in the shaping of abortion legislation in the states is a debatable question. Representation is a difficult task, especially if legislators receive mixed cues from the public, activists, and the political parties. In this study, we find that grass-roots activism and public opinion tend to match, and both are reflected in state abortion policy. In addition, more Pro-Life policies are found in states with a tradition of conservative policies in other areas, Republican majorities in the state legislature, more Catholic residents, and fewer women legislators. These patterns hold true for a composite index of abortion policies and for the specific policy area of government funding of abortions. Slightly different patterns occur for parental consent law, though these statutes also tend to reflect general preferences on abortion and interest group activity in a state.

Politics and Morality in State Abortion Policy

“…These policies were collected from annual reports from NARAL Pro-choice America. Information from the NARAL annual reports, titled Who Decides?, have been used in other political science research as a measure of state abortion conservatism or to measure contemporary state abortion policy (such as Arceneaux 2002;Berkman and O'Connor 1993;Norrander and Wilcox 1999). Instead of using only one year as most other scholars have done, I collected these reports from 1989 to 2014.…”

“…Legislators may face grassroots pressures from the strongly held beliefs of religious constituents opposed to abortion (Norrander and Wilcox 2001). Religious constituencies can have both a direct and indirect effect on policy.…”

“…The effect of religious constituents is also direct, in that church attendees are often mobilized on politicized morality issues such as abortion through their churches (Fabrizio 2001;Verba, Schlozman, and Brady 1995). In the previous abortion literature, religious populations have been used as a proxy for public attitudes on abortion (Berkman and O'Connor 1993;Strickland and Whicker 1992) and as a surrogate for interest groups' support (Berkman and O'Connor 1993;Cohen and Barrilleaux 1993;Hansen 1993;Meier and McFarlane 1993;Norrander and Wilcox 1999;.…”

“…There is evidence that abortion policy is well explained by the morality politics paradigm, which argues that the high salience and technical simplicity of policies that regulate morality engender high levels of citizen engagement (Meier and McFarlane 1993;Mooney and Lee 1995). As such, morality policy, in particular, is responsive to public opinion and religious forces (Camobreco and Barnello 2008;Cohen and Barrilleaux 1993;Cook, Jelen, and Wilcox 1992;Goggin and Wlezien 1993;Norrander and Wilcox 2001;Wetstein and Albritton 1995;Wilcox 1989). Alternatively, scholars also explain the adoption of abortion policy with politics-who runs the government.…”

“…Abortion policies are shaped through representation, by the gender and partisanship of state legislators. States with more Democratic women in the state legislature (Berkman and O'Connor 1993;Hansen 1993;Norrander and Wilcox 2001;Tatalovich and Schier 1993;Wetstein 1996), Democratic control of the legislative chambers (Berkman and O'Connor 1993;O'Connor and Berkman 1995;Norrander and Wilcox 2001), and a "pro-choice" governor (Wetstein 1996) are less likely to have restrictive abortion policies.…”