Public budget and crime: an analysis based on the examination of indicators of lethal and non-lethal crimes in the state of Ceará

Abstract

Objective: This article aims to analyze a possible relationship between budget execution and crime levels in the State of Ceará between 2012 and 2021.
 Methodology: Use of linear regression using dependent variables (budgetary expenditures with the public security function) and independent variables (public revenue, intentional lethal violent crimes, seizure of weapons, violent property crimes, thefts, and sexual crimes).
 Results: After evaluating the proposed variables, the results showed the influence of 2 (two) of the 6 (six) independent variables analyzed: revenue at 1% and theft at 10%. The other indicators related to intentional lethal violent crimes, gun seizures, violent property crimes, and sex crimes did not show consistent results.
 Contributions of the Study: Expands the level of knowledge about possible relationships between budget expenditures and crime (its various typologies), in order to better understand whether effectively only spending on public security can influence the level of crime in a state of the federation.