Psychosocial Predictors of Young Adolescent Cigarette Smoking: A Sixteen‐Month, Three‐Wave Longitudinal Study¹

Abstract

Understanding the psychosocial factors that predict cigarette smoking onset in young people is of crucial importance for prevention efforts. The present study examined prospective psychosocial predictors of smoking in a three‐wave longitudinal data set. Similar in design to an earlier study by Chassin, Presson, Sherman, Corty, and Olshavsky (1984), the present study replicated their work, and extended it by (a) using composite predictors derived from exploratory factor analysis, (b) including prior behavior as a predictor, (c) using a design extended over three waves of data collection, and (d) using a sample composed primarily of urban teenagers. Subjects were 3295 7th‐grade students at the beginning of the study. The subjects completed a questionnaire containing items tapping cigarette smoking behavior and psychosocial items that have previously been shown to predict smoking behavior. Forty‐one psychosocial items on the Wave 1 (initial) questionnaire were factor analyzed, and five factors were retained. Subscale scores were constructed based on these factors and were used as predictors. Regression analyses were performed using the subscales and pretest smoking frequency to predict a continuous measure of smoking, and discriminant analyses were performed to predict transitions between qualitative levels of smoking. Prior smoking behavior was the most important predictor of future smoking. Four of the subscales, Social Disapproval, Risk Taking/Rebelliousness, Perceived Smoking Prevalence, and Motivation to Comply, were significant predictors. One subscale, Physical Consequences from Smoking, was not predictive of smoking in any of the analyses. The effect sizes cross‐validated well. It is suggested that an integrative model of smoking initiation developed by Flay, d'Avernas, Best, Kersell, and Ryan (1983) best summarizes the results of the present study.

Correlates of Susceptibility to Smoking among Secondary School Students in Kota Tinggi District, Johor, Malaysia

“…Nonetheless, after controlling for confounding influences, parental disapproval on adolescent smoking was found to be not associated with smoking susceptibility (Table 3). These findings are contrary to those reported by other researchers (Collins et al, 1987;Sargent and Dalton 2001;Peimack et al, 2007;Kong et al, 2012;Page et al, 2012;Vazquez-Rodrigues et al, 2012). As early as in 1987, Collins et al surveyed 3,295 urban teenagers aged 12 to 13 years and found that social disapproval was one of the significant predictors of future smoking.…”

“…It revealed that the stronger the perceived social or parental disapproval, the less likely they become susceptible to smoking (Collins et al, 1987;Peimack et al, 2007;Kong et al, 2012;Page et al, 2012). However, the univariate analysis demonstrated that only perceived parental disapproval exerted significant effect to reduced smoking susceptibility.…”

Sexually Explicit Cell Phone Messaging Associated With Sexual Risk Among Adolescents

“…Yet, decades of school-based research on adolescents have repeatedly demonstrated that adolescents' perceptions of the norms and values of their peers are strongly associated with their risk-taking and antisocial behaviors. [13][14][15][16][17][18] It is important that we examine not only the rates of sexting, but that we understand how such behaviors are tied to adolescents' perceptions of the sexting behaviors of their peers or other persons whom they know.…”

The impact of an antismoking media campaign on progression to established smoking: results of a longitudinal youth study

“…Perceived smoking prevalence is known to have a strong influence on youth smoking initiation. 1,[43][44][45][46] The Massachusetts advertisements aimed to denormalize tobacco use by showing youths that smoking by their peers is not the norm. The f irst advertisement featured a crowd of youths mobilizing to "make smoking history in Massachusetts."…”