Psychosocial determinants predicting long-term sickness absence: a register-based cohort study

Abstract

BackgroundThis study assessed the psychosocial determinants as explanatory variables for the length of the work disability period. The aim was to estimate the predictive value of a selected set of psychosocial determinants from the Quickscan questionnaire for the length of the sick leave period. A comparison was also made with the most common biomedical determinant: diagnosis.MethodsIn a cohort study of 4 981 insured Belgian patients, the length of the sick leave was calculated using Kaplan–Meier. Predictive psychosocial determinants were selected using backward conditional selection in Cox regression and using concordance index values (C-index) we compared the predictive value of the biomedical to the psychosocial model in a sample subset.ResultsFourteen psychosocial determinants were significantly (p<0.10) related to the length of the sick leave: health perception of the patient, physical workload, social support management, social support colleagues, work–health interference, psychological distress, fear of colleagues’ expectations, stressful life-events, autonomy, learning and development opportunities, job satisfaction, workload, work expectations and expectation to return to work. The C-index of this biopsychosocial model including gender, age and labour status was 0.80 (CI: 0.78; 0.81) (n=4 981). In the subset of 2 868 respondents with diagnostic information, the C-index for the same model was .73 (CI: 0.71; 0.76) compared with 0.63 (CI: 0.61; 0.65) for the biomedical model.ConclusionsA set of 14 psychosocial determinants showed good predictive capacity (C-index: 0.80). Also, in a subset of the sample, the selected determinants performed better compared with diagnostic information to predict long-term sick leave (>6 months).

Does the Number of Reasons for Seeking Care and Self-Rated Health Predict Sick Leave during the Following 12 Months? A Prospective, Longitudinal Study in Swedish Primary Health Care

“…This is consistent with other studies showing that poor SRH is a marker for increased length of sick leave [ 54 ] but also for increased risk of permanent work disability [ 55 ]. Similar findings were reported in a Belgian cohort study [ 56 ], based on a biopsychosocial model, that examined psychosocial factors predicting long-term sick leave. Fourteen factors showed significance for the length of sick leave, and among these were the patient’s perception of health.…”

“…Fourteen factors showed significance for the length of sick leave, and among these were the patient’s perception of health. With better perceived health, the sick-leave period was shorter [ 56 ]. A large Dutch cohort study [ 31 ] had a similar purpose of investigating factors predicting long-term sick leave but was based on a broader multivariate risk model.…”

Sickness Absence and Sickness Presence Among Health and Care Employees in Sweden—Health Complaints, Health Behavior, and Future Long-Term Sickness Absence

“…L iterature reviews and individual studies have investigated the role of self-reported health and diagnosed health problems as reasons for sickness absence (SA) in general and for long-term sickness absence (LTSA) in particular. [1][2][3][4][5] Similarly, the role of ill health as cause or consequence of sickness presence (SP) has been studied frequently. [6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14] Studies have also compared consequences of SA and SP on health, well-being, and work ability.…”

Musculoskeletal health and work: development and internal-external cross-validation of a model to predict risk of work absence and presenteeism in people seeking primary healthcare

“…Previous work exploring the prediction of sickness absence has focussed on speci c predictors and conditions (15)(16)(17)(18)(19). The most widely used model to predict work absence is the Orebro Musculoskeletal Pain Questionnaire, and its short version (20,21), both of which were developed in populations with back pain only.…”