Provocative radio transients and base rate bias: A Bayesian argument for conservatism

Abstract

Most searches for alien radio transmission have focused on finding omni-directional or purposefully earth-directed beams of enduring duration. However, most of the interesting signals so far detected have been transient and non-repeatable in nature. These signals could very well be the first data points in an ever-growing data base of such signals used to construct a probabilistic argument for the existence of extraterrestrial intelligence. This paper looks at the effect base rate bias could have on deciding which signals to include in such an archive based upon the likely assumption that our ability to discern natural from artificial signals will be less than perfect.

If the Universe Is Teeming with Aliens ... WHERE IS EVERYBODY?

“…Pg 137 study other frequencies For suggestions of some other likely SETI frequencies seeKardashev (1979),Mauersberger et al (1996) andKuiper and Morris (1977).178 Pg 138 a new search strategyHair (2013) considers some of the difficulties in applying statistical techniques to any "long stare" strategy that hopes to construct an archive of provocative radio transients. 179 Pg 138 from some unknown terrestrial source See Gray(2011)for an entertaining and in-depth discussion of the "Wow!"…”