Provincial and gridded population projection for China under shared socioeconomic pathways from 2010 to 2100

Abstract

In response to a growing demand for subnational and spatially explicit data on China's future population, this study estimates China's provincial population from 2010 to 2100 by age (0-100+), sex (male and female) and educational levels (illiterate, primary school, junior-high school, senior-high school, college, bachelor's, and master's and above) under different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The provincial projection takes into account fertility promoting policies and population ceiling restrictions of megacities that have been implemented in China in recent years to reduce systematic biases in current studies. The predicted provincial population is allocated to spatially explicit population grids for each year at 30 arc-seconds resolution based on representative concentration pathway (RCP) urban grids and historical population grids. The provincial projection data were validated using population data in 2017 from China's Provincial Statistical Yearbook, and the accuracy of the population grids in 2015 was evaluated. These data have numerous potential uses and can serve as inputs in climate policy research with requirements for precise administrative or spatial population data in China.

Cryptosporidium spp. and Giardia duodenalis emissions from humans and animals in the Three Gorges Reservoir in Chongqing, China

“…To explore the impact of future population, urbanization, and sanitation changes on human and animal Cryptosporidium and Giardia emissions in the TGR, we divided the emissions into urban resident, rural resident, and livestock categories to predict the total oocyst and cyst emissions for 2050 based on three scenarios. China’s projected population, urbanization, and livestock production data for 2050 can be found in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) database ( Zhao, 2018 ; Huang et al, 2019 ; Chen et al, 2020 ) ( https://tntcat.iiasa.ac.at/SspDb ). We based Scenario 1 on SSP1, which is entitled “Sustainability—Taking the green road” and emphasizes sustainability, well-being, and equity.…”

“…We based Scenario 1 on SSP1, which is entitled “Sustainability—Taking the green road” and emphasizes sustainability, well-being, and equity. In this scenario, there is moderate population change and well-planned urbanization ( O’Neill et al, 2015 ; Jiang & O’Neill, 2017 ; Zhao, 2018 ; Huang et al, 2019 ; Chen et al, 2020 ). Scenario 2 was based on SSP3, which is entitled “Regional rivalry—A rocky road” and emphasizes regional progress.…”

“…Scenario 2 was based on SSP3, which is entitled ''Regional rivalry-A rocky road'' and emphasizes regional progress. In this scenario, China's population change is significant and urbanization is unplanned (O'Neill et al, 2015;Jiang & O'Neill, 2017;Zhao, 2018;Huang et al, 2019;Chen et al, 2020). To emphasize the importance of wastewater and manure treatment, we created Scenario 3 as a variation of Scenario 1 based on Hofstra & Vermeulen (2016).…”

Peer Review #1 of "Cryptosporidium spp. and Giardia duodenalis emissions from humans and animals in the Three Gorges Reservoir in Chongqing, China (v0.1)"

“…We based Scenario 1 on SSP1, which is entitled "Sustainability -Taking the green road" and emphasizes sustainability, well-being, and equity. In this scenario, there is moderate population change and well-planned urbanization (O'Neill, Kriegle, & Ebi, 2015;Jiang & O'Neill, 2017;Zhao, 2018;Huang et al, 2019;Chen et al, 2020). Scenario 2 was based on SSP3, which is entitled "Regional rivalry -A rocky road" and emphasizes regional progress.…”

“…Scenario 2 was based on SSP3, which is entitled "Regional rivalry -A rocky road" and emphasizes regional progress. In this scenario, China's population change is significant and urbanization is unplanned (O'Neill, Kriegle, & Ebi, 2015;Jiang & O'Neill, 2017;Zhao, 2018;Huang et al, 2019;Chen et al, 2020). To emphasize the importance of wastewater and manure treatment, we created Scenario 3 as a variation of Scenario 1 based on Hofstra & Vermeulen (2016).…”