Providing optimal cropping patterns and water consumption according to monitored and forecasted drought conditions

Abstract

Drought management in the agricultural sector requires monitoring and prediction of this phenomenon, as well as providing a suitable cropping pattern. In this study, the reconnaissance drought index (RDI) was used for drought monitoring in Fars Province, Iran. The status of water resources was predicted using a model that matches the time series of the RDI and the groundwater level. The optimal cropping pattern was obtained according to the predicted available water resources using a genetic algorithm. Generally, the actual and predicted changes in groundwater levels indicate the critical conditions of groundwater resources in the study area. Groundwater resource consumption should be lowered by implementing deficit irrigation scenarios that result in keeping crops with lower sensitivity to water deficit in cropping patterns such as barley, wheat, canola, forage corn and potato. The cropping pattern optimization results suggest an increase in the area allocated to more economical crops in the northern half of Fars Province due to the better temporal distribution of annual rainfall and better water resource conditions. However, with increasing water costs, the cultivation area and the optimal water reduction fraction of these plants decreased.