Protective effect of a first SARS-CoV-2 infection from reinfection: a matched retrospective cohort study using PCR testing data in England

Abstract

The duration of immunity after first severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and the extent to which prior immunity prevents reinfection is uncertain and remains an important question within the context of new variants. This is a retrospective population-based matched observational study where we identified the first polymerase chain reaction (PCR) positive of primary SARS-CoV-2 infection case tests between 1 March 2020 and 30 September 2020. Each case was matched by age, sex, upper tier local authority of residence and testing route to one individual testing negative in the same week (controls) by PCR. After a 90-day pre-follow-up period for cases and controls, any subsequent positive tests up to 31 December 2020 and deaths within 28 days of testing positive were identified, this encompassed an essentially vaccine-free period. We used a conditional logistic regression to analyse the results. There were 517 870 individuals in the matched cohort with 2815 reinfection cases and 12 098 first infections. The protective effect of a prior SARS-CoV-2 PCR-positive episode was 78% (odds ratio (OR) 0.22, 0.21–0.23). Protection rose to 82% (OR 0.18, 0.17–0.19) after a sensitivity analysis excluded 933 individuals with a first test between March and May and a subsequent positive test between June and September 2020. Amongst individuals testing positive by PCR during follow-up, reinfection cases had 77% lower odds of symptoms at the second episode (adjusted OR 0.23, 0.20–0.26) and 45% lower odds of dying in the 28 days after reinfection (adjusted OR 0.55, 0.42–0.71). Prior SARS-CoV-2 infection offered protection against reinfection in this population. There was some evidence that reinfections increased with the alpha variant compared to the wild-type SARS-CoV-2 variant highlighting the importance of continued monitoring as new variants emerge.

Risk of reinfection and disease after SARS‐CoV‐2 primary infection: Meta‐analysis

“…Of the 3282 papers initially retrieved, we included 91 cohort studies evaluating the onset of reinfection, severe and very severe/lethal COVID‐19 among 15,034,624 previously infected subjects (Figure 1), either among health care workers (27 publications; n = 37,598 2,8,9,15,17,24,36,38,42–59 ) or in the general population (67 publications; n = 14,997,026 3–7,10,12,16–23,25–27,43,49,60–106 ).…”

“…As shown in Table S1, most of the included studies ( n = 43) were carried out in Europe, 2,4–10,12,15,17,18,21,24,26,36,38,44,46–51,58,66,69,71,72,75,81,85–88,91–93,95,99,102 24 in the USA, 20,22,23,25,42,43,57,59,63,67,77,79,82–84,89,90,97,98,103,105–107 18 in Asia 3,16,19,27,45,52–54,56,60,62,64,65,70,73,74,100,101 and the remaining six in South America or South Africa 61,68,80,94,96,104 . The mean age of the participants ranged from 15 to 87 years, and the average follow‐up ranged from 29 to 371 days.…”

“…Finally, in the 54 datasets that provided data for the analysis of very severe/lethal COVID‐19, 2,3,5,6,10,16–22,25–27,44,47–59,64–66,69,71–73,79,81,82,84–87,92,94,95,99–104 a total of 199 events were recorded among 3,574,793 previously infected individuals, corresponding to a pooled rate of 0.02% (0.01%–0.03%), which did not differ by time lag or definition criteria.…”

SARS-CoV-2 reinfections during the first three major COVID-19 waves in Bulgaria

“…Later, towards the end of 2021, the Omicron lineage of variants emerged, with very strong immune escape characteristics [176][177][178][179] and the ability to reinfect convalescent individuals at a high rate [123,[180][181][182][183].…”

SARS-CoV-2 reinfections during the first three major COVID-19 waves in Bulgaria

“…Later, towards the end of 2021, the Omicron lineage of variants emerged, with very strong immune escape characteristics [178][179][180][181] and the ability to reinfect convalescent individuals at a high rate 124,[182][183][184][185] .…”