Introduction
Infant HIV prophylaxis with broadly neutralizing antiâHIV antibodies (bNAbs) could provide longâacting protection against vertical transmission. We sought to estimate the potential clinical impact and costâeffectiveness of hypothetical bNAb prophylaxis programmes for children known to be HIV exposed at birth in three subâSaharan African settings.
Methods
We conducted a costâeffectiveness analysis using the CEPACâPediatric model, simulating cohorts of infants from birth through death in CĂŽte d'Ivoire, South Africa and Zimbabwe. These settings were selected to reflect a broad range of HIV care cascade characteristics, antenatal HIV prevalence and budgetary constraints. We modelled strategies targeting bNAbs to only WHOâdesignated âhighâriskâ HIVâexposed infants (HRâHIVE) or to all HIVâexposed infants (HIVE). We compared four prophylaxis approaches within each target population: standard of care oral antiretroviral prophylaxis (SOC), and SOC plus bNAbs at birth (1âdose), at birth and 3 months (2âdoses), or every 3 months throughout breastfeeding (Extended). Baseâcase model inputs included bNAb efficacy (60%/dose), effect duration (3 months/dose) and costs ($60/dose), based on published literature. Outcomes included paediatric HIV incidence and incremental costâeffectiveness ratios (ICERs) calculated from discounted life expectancy and lifetime HIVârelated costs.
Results
The model projects that bNAbs would reduce absolute infant HIV incidence by 0.3â2.2% (9.6â34.9% relative reduction), varying by country, prophylaxis approach and target population. In all three settings, HRâHIVEâ1âdose would be costâsaving compared to SOC. Using a 50% GDP per capita ICER threshold, HIVEâExtended would be costâeffective in all three settings with ICERs of $497/YLS in CĂŽte d'Ivoire, $464/YLS in South Africa and $455/YLS in Zimbabwe. In all three settings, bNAb strategies would remain costâeffective at costs up to $200/dose if efficacy is â„30%. If the bNAb effect duration were reduced to 1 month, the costâeffective strategy would become HRâHIVEâ1âdose in CĂŽte d'Ivoire and Zimbabwe and HRâHIVEâ2âdoses in South Africa. Findings regarding the costâeffectiveness of bNAb implementation strategies remained robust in sensitivity analyses regarding breastfeeding duration, maternal engagement in postpartum care, early infant diagnosis uptake and antiretroviral treatment costs.
Conclusions
At current efficacy and cost estimates, bNAb prophylaxis for HIVâexposed children in subâSaharan African settings would be a costâeffective intervention to reduce vertical HIV transmission.