Protected areas not likely to serve as steppingstones for species undergoing climate‐induced range shifts

Abstract

Species across the planet are shifting their ranges to track suitable climate conditions in response to climate change. Given that protected areas have higher quality habitat and often harbor higher levels of biodiversity compared to unprotected lands, it is often assumed that protected areas can serve as steppingstones for species undergoing climate‐induced range shifts. However, there are several factors that may impede successful range shifts among protected areas, including the distance that must be traveled, unfavorable human land uses and climate conditions along potential movement routes, and lack of analogous climates. Through a species‐agnostic lens, we evaluate these factors across the global terrestrial protected area network as measures of climate connectivity, which is defined as the ability of a landscape to facilitate or impede climate‐induced movement. We found that over half of protected land area and two‐thirds of the number of protected units across the globe are at risk of climate connectivity failure, casting doubt on whether many species can successfully undergo climate‐induced range shifts among protected areas. Consequently, protected areas are unlikely to serve as steppingstones for a large number of species under a warming climate. As species disappear from protected areas without commensurate immigration of species suited to the emerging climate (due to climate connectivity failure), many protected areas may be left with a depauperate suite of species under climate change. Our findings are highly relevant given recent pledges to conserve 30% of the planet by 2030 (30 × 30), underscore the need for innovative land management strategies that allow for species range shifts, and suggest that assisted colonization may be necessary to promote species that are adapted to the emerging climate.

Implementation resistance and the human dimensions of connectivity planning

“…Given that existing protected areas are unlikely to provide sufficient habitat for many species as climate changes (e.g. Littlefield et al, 2017; Parks et al, 2023; Ward et al, 2020), the ability to evaluate different connectivity conservation strategies both in terms of their ecological benefits and potential for implementation is critical.…”

Using sentinel nodes to evaluate changing connectivity in a protected areas network

“…While there are many similarities between our park-to-park model of connectivity and omnidirectional models, notable differences can be seen in the high current flowing through protected areas as a result of the low cost assigned to natural areas within park boundaries. As species distributions shift in response to climate change, these pinch points connecting the south of the province to the north will be critical for maintaining climate connectivity (Parks et al, 2023;Schloss et al, 2022) and encroachment of surrounding anthropogenic developments puts these critical connectivity areas at risk of being reduced or lost. Connectivity in this region could be maintained through a combination of expanded protection and improved management of working landscapes between protected areas.…”

“…This will be especially critical in the face of climate change as currently suitable habitat in protected areas may become unsuitable in the future and species are required to shift their ranges to track suitable climates (Parks et al, 2023). We suggest that future work should more rigorously test the sentinel node method by examining the response of MPER to protected areas size and configuration and different conservation interventions (e.g., addition of corridors).…”

Response to concerns raised about the likelihood of protected areas serving as steppingstones for species responding to climate change

“…Even in the absence of protected areas that harbor higher levels of biodiversity compared to the unprotected matrix (Brodie et al, 2023), others have concluded that climate change velocity exceeds the dispersal abilities of many species (Burrows et al, 2014) and human land use hinders the ability of many species to track climate change (Robillard et al, 2015). Parks et al (2023) clearly recognized that the biodiversity at a given site comprises innumerable taxa, with each species having variable dispersal abilities, sensitivities to human land uses, and climatic tolerances. As we did not claim that all protected areas were unlikely to serve as steppingstones for all species, we stand by our Published 2023.…”

“…Our recent contribution to Global Change Biology found that, globally, two‐thirds of protected area units and over half of protected land area are unlikely to serve as steppingstones for many species under a warming climate (Parks et al, 2023). In response, Gillingham and Thomas (2023) point to previous evidence that protected areas have acted as steppingstones based on three studies from Great Britain that examined range shifts.…”